Validation of Tu's Cardiac Surgical Risk Prediction Index in a Western Australian Population

Abstract

Tu's cardiac surgical risk prediction index for a Western Australian population was examined in a prospective observational cohort study. Risk score and outcome data were collected for 367 consecutive patients. Logistic regression analysis for Tu score prediction of hospital mortality and linear regression analysis for prediction of ICU and hospital stays were performed. The Tu index accurately predicted mortality rates (P=0.002, odds ratio 1.46). The linear regression analyses of Tu score on ICU and hospital stays showed an excellent fit (P=0.0001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for prolonged ICU stay was 0.75. The Tu risk index is valid for a Western Australian cardiac surgical population and practice.