Bayesian Statistics: How to Quantify Uncertainty

Abstract

In science, as in life, we are continually presented with new evidence that potentially alters our view of reality. We have hypotheses about reality and these hypotheses are subject to adjustment or replacement in the light of new information. However, we are rightly reluctant to discard well-established models of reality every time some new information calls them into question. To do so would place us at the mercy of poorly collected data and chance outliers. New evidence must be weighed against pre-existing evidence and alternative explanations for new data must be considered.