Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models

Abstract

The current state of regional climate and climate change modelling using GCMs is reviewed for southern Africa, and several approaches to regional climate change prediction which have been applied to southern Africa are assessed. Confidence in projected regional changes is based on the ability of a range of models to simulate present regional climate, and is greatest where intermodel consensus in terms of the nature of projected changes is highest. Both equil ibrium and transient climate change projections for southern Africa are considered. Warming projected over southern Africa is within the range of globally averaged estimates. Uncertainties associated with the parameterization of convection ensure that projected changes in rainfall at GCM grid scales remain unreliable. However, empirical downscaling approaches produce rainfall changes consistent with synoptic-scale circulation. Both downscaling and grid-scale approaches indicate a 10-15% decrease in summer rainfall over the central interior which may have important implications for surface hydrology. Climate change may be manifested as a change in variability, and not in mean climate. Over southern Africa, increases in the variability and intensity of daily rainfall events are indicated.