The decision to grant or deny probation or parole is dependent upon making predictions of what activity and behavior can be affected by probation or parole. However, in research conducted on correctional decision-making, the evidence shows that decision-making diverges significantly from what one would expect to be true if there were any validity to preventive or correctional claims as guides to decision-making. In light of this finding, this article discusses the side effects of prediction in probation and parole including economic consequences, sentencing issues, ethical issues, moral and political issues, and legal issues. The article concludes with several recommendations to limit our belief and use of prediction in probation and parole.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
American Psychiatric Association . (1974). Clinical aspects of the violent individual. Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Association.
2.
Ares, C. , Rankin, A., & Sturz, J. (1963). The Manhattan bail project: An interim report on the use of pre-trial parole. NYU Law Review, 38, 67-95.
3.
Brodsky, S. (1973). Psychologist in the criminaljustice system. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
4.
Campbell, D. (1969). Reforms as experiments. American Psychologist, 24, 404-420.
5.
Dershowitz, A. (1970). Imprisonment by judicial hunch: The case against pretrial preventive detention. Prison Journal, 50, 12-22.
6.
Dershowtiz, A. (1974). The origins of preventive confinement in Anglo-American law. Part I: The English experience. University of Cincinnati Law Review, 43, 1-60.
7.
Ennis, B. & Litwack, T. (1974). Psychiatry and the presumption of expertise: Flipping coins in the courtroom. California Law Review, 62, 693-752.
8.
Farrington, D. (1973). Self-reports of deviant behavior: Predictive and stable?Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 64, 99-110.
9.
Foote, C. (1954). Compelling appearance in court-administration of bail in Philadelphia. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 102, 1031-1079.
10.
Foote, C. (1958). A study of the administration of bail in New York City. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 106, 693-730.
11.
Friedson, E. (1970). Profession of medicine. New York: Dodd, Mead.
12.
Kozol, H. , Boucher, R., & Gorofalo, R. (1972). The diagnosis and treatment of dangerousness. Crime and Delinquency, 18, 371-392.
13.
Levi, K. (1981). Becoming a hit man: Neutralization in a very deviant career. Urban Life, 10, 47-63.
14.
Megargee, E. (1977). A new classification system for criminal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 4, 107-114.
15.
Monahan, J. (1976). The prevention of violence. In J. Monahan (Ed.), Community mental health and the criminal justice system. New York: Pergamon.
16.
Monahan, J. (1981). Predictive violent behavior. An assessment of clinical techniques. Beverly Hills: Sage.
17.
Monahan, J. , & Cummings, L. (1975). Social policy implications of the inability to predict violence. Journal of Social Issues, 31, 153-164.
18.
Morris, N. (1974). The future of imprisonment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
19.
Morris, M. (Ed.) (1976). Instead of prisons: Handbook for abolitionist. Syracuse, NY: Prison Research Education Action Project.
Pepinsky, H. (1980). Crime control strategies: An introduction to the study of crime. New York: Oxford University Press.
22.
Predicting success after release, based on adjustment in institution, like "flipping a coin." (1982, Summer). Notes: Newsletter of the Texas youth council, 5.
23.
Reiman, J. (1984). The rich get richer, the poor get prison. (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
24.
Sarbin, T. (1967). The dangerous individual: An outcome of social identity transformations. British Journal of Criminology, 7, 285-295.
25.
Shah, S. (1981). Dangerousness: Conceptual, prediction, and public policy issues. In J. Hays, T. Roberts, & K. Solway (Eds.). Violence and the violent individual. New York: Spectrum.
26.
Shah, S. (1969). Crime and mental illness: Some problems in defining and labeling deviant behavior. Mental Hygiene, 53, 21-33.
27.
Skogan, W. (1981). Issues in the measurement of victimization. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
28.
Steadman, H. (1972). The psychiatrist as a conservative agent of social control. Social Problems, 20, 263-271.
29.
Steadman, J. & Cocozza, J. (1975, January). We can't predict who's dangerous. Psychology Today, 33-33.
30.
Steadman, J. , & Keveles, G. (1972). Community adjustment and criminal activity of the Baxstrom patients. American Journal of Psychiatry, 129, 304-310.
31.
Stone, A. (1984). Law, psychiatry, and morality. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Press.
32.
Tomasic, R. , & Dobinson, D. (1979). The failure of imprisonment. Sydney: George Allen and Umrin.
33.
von Hirsch, A. , & Hanrahan, K. (1978). Abolish parole?Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
34.
Wenk, E. , & Emrich, R. (1972). Assaultive youth: An exploratory study of assaultive experience and assaultive potential of California youth authority wards. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 9, 171-196.
35.
Wenk, E. , Robinson, J., & Smith, G. (1972). Can violence be predicted?Crime and Delinquency, 18, 393-402.
36.
Wilkins, L. (1969). Evaluation of penal measures. New York: Random House.
37.
Wilkins, L. , Kress, J., Gottfredson, D., Caplin, J., & Gelman, A. (1978). Sentencing guidelines and structuring judicial discretion. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
38.
Wilson, J. (1975). Thinking about crime. New York: Basic Books.
39.
Wilson, J. & Herrnstein, R. (1985). Crime and human nature. New York: Simon and Schuster.
