Abstract
The SAPROF-SO was developed as a measure of protective factors relevant to sexual recidivism to support a balanced, holistic assessment of recidivism risk. Traditionally, sexual recidivism risk has been largely understood in terms of the density of risk factors presented by the individual, as measured by instruments like the Static-99R. This paper investigated how far the recidivism risk implied by a Static-99R score would be moderated by the presence of protective factors as measured by the SAPROF-SO Version 1. Data representing 5-year sexual recidivism, along with scores on Static-99R and the SAPROF-SO Version 1, were collated from previously collected samples of men with a history of sexual offending who had been selected for prison treatment programs designed to reduce sexual recidivism risk in Canada and New Zealand, giving a combined sample of N = 467. Fitting a logistic regression equation to predict 5-year sexual recidivism indicated that both instruments were predictive, with the SAPROF-SO powerfully moderating the level of risk implied by Static-99R scores. Implications for clinical assessment are discussed and an Excel-based calculator implementing the logistic regression equation was developed for clinical use.
Plain Language Summary
Why was the study done? Psychologists commonly assess sexual reoffending risk using clinician-rated instruments measuring the presence of risk factors based on criminal history information. A substantial body of research shows sexual reoffending increasing as risk scores rise. Emerging research suggests assessment of changeable protective factors (e.g., effective coping with stress, sexual self-regulation, prosocial ways of achieving goals) may improve the accuracy of sexual reoffending risk assessments. This study was intended to investigate how well assessment of protective factors improves predictive accuracy in sexual reoffending risk assessments. What did the researchers do? They obtained data for 3 samples of prison-based treatment participants who had been rated on Static-99R (a measure of risk factors based on criminal history) and the SAPROF-SO Version 1 (a measure of protective factors rated after treatment) and related both to rates of sexual reoffending occurring during the 5 years after release. What did the researchers find? Out of 467 treatment participants who were followed up for 5 years 43 were reconvicted for a sex offense. Scores on Static-99R and the SAPROF-SO were both predictive of sexual reoffending. Rates of reoffending were highest for individuals with a high level of risk factors and low level of protective factors. When protective factors were at least moderately developed, sexual reoffending rates were low even for men with a high level of risk. A formula for combining the two measures to predict sexual reoffending was developed. What do the findings mean? Instead of focusing solely on risk factors as has been done in the past, assessment should include both risk factors and protective factors.
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