Institutionalisation as a Measure of Regime Stability: Insights for International Regime Analysis from the Study of Domestic Politics

For exceptions to this general rule, see Robert Jervis , 'Security Regimes ' in Stephen Krasner (ed.), International Regimes (Ithaca, NY: Cornell, 1983). Roger K. Smith , 'Explaining the Non-Proliferation Regime: Anomalies for Contemporary International Relations Theory,' Internalional Organization (No.41. Spring 1987); Joseph S. Nye, Jr. , 'Nuclear Learning and U.S. Soviet Security Regimes', International Organization (No. 41. Summer 1987); and Alexander George , et al., US Soviet Security Cooperation (New York: Oxford University Press , 1988).

I am indebted to a particularly discerning taxonomy of conceptions of political explanation developed by Peter Yu , 'Political Explanation and the Study of International Relations', unpublished manuscript, Harvard Law School, Harvard University, 1987.

See Gabriel A. Almond and Stephen J. Genco , 'Clouds, Clocks and the Study of Politics', World Politics (No. 29, July 1977).

See J. Donald Moon , 'The Logic of Political Inquiry: A Synthesis of Opposed Perspectives ' in Fred. I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby , (eds.), The Handbook of Political Science: Vol, 1: Political Science: Scope and Theory ( Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975 ).

Stephen Krasner , 'Structural Causes' in Krasner (ed.), op. cit, p.1.

Friedrich Kratochwil and John Gerrard Ruggie, 'International Organization: A State of the Art on an Art of the State', International Organization (No. 40, Autumn 1986 ).

James F. Deeley , 'Legitimacy, Capability, Effectiveness and the Future of the NPT' in David B. Dewitt (ed.), Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Global Security (New York: St. Martin's, 1987), p, 26.

Ernst B. Haas , is There a Hole in the Whole? Knowledge, Technology, Interdependence and the Construction of International Regimes ', International Organization (No. 29, Summer 1975), p. 859.

Randy J. Rydell , 'Navigating the Archipelago: Non-proliferation Orientations of Emerging Suppliers', in Rodney Jones et. al. (eds.), The Nuclear Suppliers and NonProliferation ( Lexington, MA: Lexington, 1985), p. 105.

'If the principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures of a regime become less coherent, or if actual practice is increasingly inconsistent with principles, norms, rules and procedures, then a regime has weakened.' Stephen D. Krasner , 'Structural Causes and Regime Consequences: Regimes and Intervening Variables' in Krasner (ed.), op. cit, p. 5.

An exception to this general rule is Stephen D. Krasner , Structural Conflict: The Third World Against Global Liberalism (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1985); see particularly his discussion of congruence and incongruence and their relationship to stability, esp. pp. 76-78.

Stephan Haggard and Beth Simmons , ' Theories of International Regimes', International Organisation (No. 41, Summer 1981).

Young talks about 'spontaneous', 'negotiated' and 'imposed' systems of order; see his 'Regime Dynamics: The Rise and Fall of International Regimes' in Krasner (ed.), op. cit.

Kratochwil and Ruggie , op. cit p.771.

Talcott Parsons , Structure and Process in Modern Societies (New York: Free Press, 1960, pp. 170-98.

Talcott Parsons and Edward Shils (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press , 1951), p.194.

John Gerard Ruggie, 'International Responses to Technology: Concepts and Trends ', International Organization (No. 29, Summer 1975).

Parsons , op.cit, p.170.

Haggard and Simmons , op. cit, p.496.

Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony : Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984). p.59.

See William Potter (ed.), Verifrcation and SALT (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1988); and Mark M. Lowenthal in U.S. Congress House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Fundamentals of Nuclear Arms Control: Part IV: Treaty Compliance and Nuclear Arms Control, 99th Congress, 1st session, June 19, 1985.

Kratochwil and Ruggie , op. cit p.768.

Krasner , ' Structural Causes' in Krasner (ed.), op. cit, p. 2.

Kratchwil and Ruggie , op. cit p.767.

Joseph S. Nye , Jr. , 'The Diplomacy of Nuclear Proliferation' in Alan K. Hendrickson (ed.), Negotiating World Order: The Artisanship and Architecture of Global Diplomacy (Wilmington, DE: Scholarly Resources, 1986), p. 92.

Onkar Matwah , India's Nuclear Program: Decisions, Intent and Policy', in William H. Overholt (ed.), Asia's Nuclear Future (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1977), p. 169.

Sanjoy Hazarika , 'India Tests its own Surface-Surface Missile', New York Times, February 25, 1988.

One of the clearest overviews of Israel's nuclear development can be found in Leonard S. Spector , Nuclear Proliferation Today ( New York: Vintage, 1984), pp. 118-12. Also see Faud Jabber , Israel and Nuclear Weapons ( London: Chatto and Windus, 1971); and Peter Pry , Israel's Nuclear Arsenal (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1984).

Leonard S. Spector, Going Nuclear (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger , 1987), pp. 10-145.

George H. Quester , 'Some Pakistani Problems and a Nuclear Non-Solution', in Neil Joeck (ed.), The Strategic Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia (London: Cass, 1986). p. 10.

According to the final declaration of the 1985 NPT Review Conference, the nonproliferation regime is still seeking universal participation: 'the Parties remain convinced that universal adherence to the (NPT) is the best way to strengthen the barriers against proliferation and they urge all States not party to accede to it....' cited in Mark J. Moher , 'The Policies of the Supplier Nations', in Dewitt (ed.), op. cit, p.102.

For more on this 'apolitical transcendence', see William Potter , 'Nuclear Proliferation: US-Soviet Cooperation', Washington Quarterly (Winter 1985); and Joseph S. Nye , Jr. , 'US-Soviet Cooperation in a Nonproliferation Regime,' in Alexander George et al., US-Soviet Security Cooperation ( New York: Oxford University Press, 1988).

Cited in Glenn T. Seaborg , Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Test Ban (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1981), p. 199.

Joseph S. Nye , 'Maintaining the Nonprotiferation Regime', International Organization (No. 5, Winter 1981), p. 15.

In March 1988, Taiwan was forced by the United States to cease work on a secret plutonium extraction plan; see Stephen Engleberg with Michael R. Gordon , 'Taipei Halts Work on Secret Plant To Make Nuclear Bomb Ingredient ', New York Times (March 2. 1988).

See Spector , Nuclear Proliferation Today, Spector, The New Nuclear Nations ( New York: Vintage, 1985); and Spector, Going Nuclear.

Ted Greenwood et al., Nuclear Proliferation: Motivations, Capabilities and Strategies for Control (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1977) defined 'latent proliferation' as a 'situation in which a country, whether deliberately or not, has moved substantially closer to having nuclear weapons than it would be if it had no nuclear programs whatever' (p. 148), the idea behind such a broad definition was to counter a common tendency to see nuclear proliferation strictly as a rigid set of sequential steps. The underlying assumption was that 'many situations that can have severe international security implications are much more complex and difficult to deal with than the relatively well defined act of transferring nuclear materials from where they are authorized to be to where they are not' (p. 149). 'Opaque proliferation', as conceived by Avner Cohen and Benjamin Frankel, covers a much smaller collection of countries. Suspect countries must possess the following four criteria: (1) a technical capacity to produce weapons and master the necessary simulation techniques that obviate the need for a nuclear test explosion; (2) a perception of threat or a sense of historical destiny or mission that would drive the acquisition for nuclear weapons; (3) no open debate about the rate of nuclear weapons within society; and (4) nuclear weapons are not at the center of current national security doctrine and practice.

Ivo K. and Rosalind L. Feirerabend , 'Aggressive Behaviors Within Politics', 1948-1962: A Cross National Study,' Journal of Conflict Resolution (No. 10, September 1966).

Bruce Russett et al., World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators (New Haven, CT; Yale University Press, 1964), pp. 101-104.

Claude Ake , A Theory of Political Integration ( Homewood, IL: University of Illinois Press , 1967).

See Harry Eckstein , Division and Cohesion in Democracy: A Study of Norway (Princeton, NJ; Princeton University Press, 1966); and Arend Lijphart , The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands ( Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1968).

Samuel P. Huntington , Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968), p. 5.

Ibid, p. 266

Ibid, p. 13.

Ibid, p. 13.

Ibid, p. 14.

William Walker and Mans Lonnroth , Nuclear Power Struggles: Industrial Competition and Proliferation Control (London; Allen and Unwin, 198), p. 4.

Ibid, p. 1.

One of the principal conclusions of INFCE was that 'Proliferation is primarily a political and not a technical matter'; International Fuel Cycle Evaluation, INFCE Summary Volume (Vienna: IAEA. 1980), p. 147.

Joseph F. Pilat , 'The French, Germans and Japanese and the Future of the Nuclear Supply Regime', in Rodney W. Jones, et al. (eds.), The Nuclear Suppliers and Non-Proliferation: International Policy Choices (Lexington, MA: Lexington, 1985), p. 90.

Walker and Lonnroth , op. cit, p. 45.

Huntington , op. cit, p. 15.

'IAEA Is Facing Major Problems in Safeguarding Pakistan's KANUPP Power Station', Nucleonics Week, (October 8, 1981), p. 6;' IAEA Completes Its Desired Upgrading of Safeguards at KANUPP,' Nucleonics Week (March 3, 1983), p. 1.

Simon Henderson , 'Why Pakistan May Not Need to Test a Nuclear Device'. Financial Times (August 14, 1984).

Jack Anderson and Dale Van Atta , 'US Hinders Pakistan's Bomb Plans', Washington Post (September 2, 1985 ).

Bob Woodward , 'Pakistan Reported Near Atom Arms Production ', Washington Post (November 4, 1986),

David B. Ottaway , 'US Can't Verify Pakistan Not Building A-Bomb ', New York Times (October 24, 1987 ).

Gary Milhollin , Heavy Water Cheaters', Foreign Policy (Winter 1987/88), p. 101.

Huntington , op. cit, pp. 17-18.

Vinod Agarwal , Liberal Protectionism: The International Politics of Organized Textile Trade (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1985), pp. 18-20,37,

Keohane , op. cit, p. 90.

Jack Barkenbus , 'Nuclear Power Safety and the Role of International Organization', International Organization (No. 41, Summer 1987).

John H. Cushman, Jr. , '7 Nations Agree to Limit Export of Big Rockets', New York Times (April 17, 1987); also see Arthur F. Manfredi , et al., Ballistic Missile Proliferation Potential in the Third World, Congressional Research Service Report No. 86-29 SPR (Washington: Library of Congress, April 24, 1986).

Huntington , op. cit, p. 20.

Ibid, p. 22.

Krasner , Structural Conflict. pp. 14-15.

Huntington , op. cit, p. 21.

John J. Schulz , 'Bluff and Uncertainty: Deterrence and the "Maybe States''', SAIS Review (No. 7, Summer/Fall 1987).

Randy J. Rydell , 'Navigating the Archipelago: Non-Proliferation Orientations of Emerging Suppliers', in Rodney W. Jones et al., The Nuclear Suppliers and NonProliferation (Lexington, MA: Lexington, 1985), p. 105.

Ram R. Subramanian , 'Second-Tier Nuclear Suppliers: Threat to the NPT Regime?' in Jones et al., op. cit, p. 97.

Rydell , " Navigating the Archipelago', in Jones et al., op. cit, p. 115.

Jed C. Snyder , 'The Non-Proliferation Regime: Managing the Impending Crisis', in Joeck (ed.). op.cit, pp. 22-23.

Daniel Homer and Paul Leventhal , 'The US-China Nuclear Agreement: A Failure of Executive Policymaking and Congressional Oversight', Fletcher Forum (No. 11. Winter 1987), p. 119.

See US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency , Non-proliferation Assessment Statement jor the US-China Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation (Washington : ACDA, 1985).

South Africa has also given indications that it might sign the NPT: see John D. Battersby, 'South Africa Says It May Soon Sign Atom Agreement', New York Times (September 22, 1987).

William T.R. Fox, 'The Uses of International Relations Theory' , in William T. R. Fox (ed.), Theoretical Aspects of International Relations (Notre Dame, IN: Notre Dame University Press, 1959, p. 5.

Kratochwil and Ruggie , op. cit p. 756.

Huntington and Dominques , 'Political Development ', in Greenstein and Polsby (eds.), op. cit, p. 7.

Krasner , ' Structural Consequences', in Krasner (ed.), op. cit, pp. 3-4.

Ibid, p. 3.