Logics and Evidences of War: Progress and Contradictions

Robert Gilpin , War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 5.

See Wassilly Leontief , 'Theoretical Assumptions and Non-observed Facts' American Economic Review (Vol. 51. No. 61, 1971), pp. 1-7; and Mark Blaug , Economic Theory in Retrospect (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980).

Chaim Herzog , The Arab-Israeli Wars: War and Peace in the Middle East ( New York: Random House, 1982); Robert Gilpin , War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981); Richard K. Ashley , The Political Economy of War and Peace (London: Nichols, 1981); J. David Singer , Correlates of War, Vols. I and II (New York: Free Press, 1980); Manus I. Midlarsky , On War: Political Violence in the International System (New York: Free Press, 1975).

A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler , The War Ledger (Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, 1980), p. 1.

Hamza Alavi , 'The States in Post-Colonial Societies: Pakistan and Bangladesh' in Katheleen Gough and Hari P. Sharma (eds.), Imperialism and Revolution in South Asia (New York: Monthly Review Press , L973), pp. 145-74.

For a summary of the Bremer-Singer-Stuckey measure, see J. David Singer, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey, 'Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965', in Bruce M. Russett (ed.), Peace, War and Numbers (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1972), pp. 19-48.

A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler , op. cit, p. 39.

Carlos Daganzo , Multinomial Probit: The Theory and Its Application to Demand Forecasting (New York: Academic Press, 1979); Charles Manski and Daniel McFadden , Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1981).

Marc Zimmerman , 'Polarities and Contradictions: Theoretical Bases of the Marxist-Structuralist Encounter', New German Critique (No. 7, Winter 1976), p. 81.

A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler , op. cit, p. 107.

Ibid, p. 81.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 2.

Ibid, p.9,

See David Singer , 'Rejoinder To the Critiques,' in Francis Hoole and Dina Zinnes , (eds.), Quantitative International Politics ( New York: Praeger, 1976), pp. 128-48.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 11.

A comprehensive review of Arrow by Steve Strasnick can be found in Philosophy and Public Affairs (Vol. 5, No. 3, Spring 1976), pp. 241-73.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit. p. 16.

See Amo J. Mayer , 'Internal Crisis and War Since 1870', in Charles L. Bertand (ed.), Situations Revolutionnaires En Europe, 1917-1922: Allemagne, Italie, Autriche-Hongrie (Montreal: Centre interuniversitaire d'Etudes Européennes, 1977).

See the following sources for additional evidence: Justus M. Van Der Kroef , ' The Cambodian-Vietnamese War. Some Origins and Implications', Asia Quarterly (Nos, 2 and 3, 1979), pp. 83-94 and 171-83. Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs, Vietnam-Cambodia Conflict (Washington, DC: US Government, 1978). Sreeddhar , 'The Iran-Iraq War: A Preliminary Assessment ', Foreign Affairs Reports (Vol. 29, No. 12, December 1980), pp. 243-65. sawaharlal Nehru , 'Chinese Agression in War and Peace', Letters of the Prime Minister of India (Delhi: Publications Division, Government of India, 1962); Mohammad Ayub Kahn , Friends Not Masters: A Political Autobiography (Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1967); Istvan Kende , Local Wars in Asia, Africa, and Latin America: 1945-1969 ( Budapest: Center for Afro-Asian Research, 1972); H.R. Gupta , India-Pakistan War: 1965, Volumes I and II (Delhi: Harayana Prakashan, 1978); D.A. Holly , '1969 Honduras and El Salvador Conflict ', Revista De Politica Internacional (Vol. 10, No. 1), pp. 75-92; Bruce Burton , 'Contending Explanations of the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War', International Journal (Vol. 34, No. 4, Autumn 1979), pp. 699-722.

Dina Zinnes , 'Three Puzzles in Search of a Researcher', International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 24, No. 3, September 1980), pp. 315-42.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 37.

See William McNeil , The Pursuit of Power (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1982); and B.J. Parry and M.E. Yapp , War, Technology, and the Middle East (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1975), for long-term analyses of the relationship between war and technology.

For elaboration on bridge principles, see Carl G. Hempel , Philosophy of Natural Sciences (New York: Prentice Hall , 1966), pp. 72-104.

See George J. Stigler , 'The Development of Utility Theory I ', The Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 58, No 4, August 1950) pp. 307-27; George J. Stigler , 'The Development of Utility Theory II' The Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 58, No 5, October 1950), pp. 373-96; Jacob Viner , 'The Utility Concept in Value Theory and its Critics', The Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 33, December 1925), pp. 638-95, for an early but comprehensive review of the origins and logics of utility theory. For a more recent survey see: David H. Begg , The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macro-economics: Theories and Evidence (Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press, 1982). John Elster , Ulysses and the Sirens: Studies in Rationality and Irrationality ( Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979). Amartya K. Sen , 'Rational Fools: A Critique of Behavioural Foundations of Economic Theory', Philosophy and Public Affairs (Vol. 5, No. 3, Spring 1976), pp. 317-44. Alexander Rosenburg , Microeconomic Laws: A Philosophical Analysis (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1976). Ellery Eells , Rational Decision and Causuality (London: Cambridge University Press, 1982). Martin Hollis and Edward Nell , Rational Economic Man: A Philosophical Critique of Neoclassical Economics ( London: Cambridge University Press, 1975).

Ludwig von Mises , The Epistemology of Economics (New York: New York University Press, 1976), p. 31.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker , 'The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations', The Journal of Economic Literature (Vol. 20, No. 2, June 1982), p.551.

See Paul Samuelson , 'Probability, Utility and the Independence Axiom ', Econometrica (Vol. 20, No. 44, October 1952), pp. 670-8.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker , 'The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations', The Journal (of Economic Literature (Vol. 20, No. 2, June 1982), p. 551.

Lauren Tribe , 'Policy Science: Analysis or Ideology', Philosophy and Public Affairs (Vol. 2, No. 1, Fall 1972), pp. 66-116.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 69

Michael Brecher , Decisions in Crisis: Israel, 1967 and 1973 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1980), p. 4.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 87.

A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler , op. cit, p. 68.

See Milton Friedman and L.J. Savage , 'The Expected-Utility Hypothesis and the Measureability of Utility, The Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 60, No. 6, December 1952), pp. 463-74, for a commentary on some of the problems of the measurement and meaning of expected utility.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , op. cit, p. 124.

See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's universe of wars in the appendix of The War Trap. 37.

See Peter Gourevitch , 'The Second Image Reversed: the International Sources of Domestic Politics ', International Organization (Vol. 32, No. 4, Autumn 1978), for elaboration on the relationship between regime formation and war. Also see his review article, 'The International System and Regime Formation ', Comparative Politics (Vol. 10, No. 3, April 1975), pp. 419-38.