Nuclear Winter and the USSR

P.J. Crutzen and J.W. Birks , 'The Atmosphere After a Nuclear War. Twilight at Noon',Ambio (Vol. 11, Nos. 2-3, 1982), pp. 114-25.

See, for example, P.R. Ehrlich , C. Sagan , D. Kennedy and W. Orr Roberts , The Cold and the Dark: The World After Nuclear War (London: Sidgwick and Jackson, 1984), and L. Dotto , Planet Earth in Jeopardy: Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War (Chichester . John Wiley and Sons, 1986). For Soviet work, see The Night After... Climatic and bioLogical Consequences of a Nuclear War (Moscow: Mir, 1985), and several articles in Priroda (No. 6, 1985).

E.g., C. Sagan , 'Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications', Foreign Affairs (Vol. 62, Winter 1983-84), pp. 258-92.

'Nuclear winter. the view from the US Defense Department. Report of the Secretary of Defense to Congress on the potential effects of nuclear winter on the climate, March 1985', Survival(Vol. 27, No. 3, May-June 1985), pp. 130-4.

A.S. Ginzburg , "Yademaya zima" -. real'naya ugroza chelovechestvu' , SShA (No. 3, 1985 ), p. 50.

E.g., S.L. Thompson , V.V. Alexandrov , G.L. Stenchikov , S.H. Schneider , C. Covey , and R.M. Chervin , 'Global Climatic Consequences of Nuclear War: Simulations with Three-Dimensional Models', Ambio (Vol. 13, No. 5, 1984), pp. 236-43.

The Night After, op. cit., p. 54; V.V. Alexandrov and N.N. Moiseev , 'Yademyi konflikt glazami klimatologov i matematikov', Vestnik AN SSRR (No. 11, 1984), pp. 65- 76, 8. Y. Izrael , Changes in the Atmosphere Due to a Nuclear War', in The Night After..., op. cit., p. 37.

P.R. Ehrlich , et al, op. cit, p. 89; G.S. Golitsyn , 'On the Martian Dust-Storms', Icarus (Vol. 18, No. 1, 1973), pp. 113-9.

G.I. Barenblatt and G.S. Golitsyn , 'On the local structure of mature Dust Storms', Journal of Atmospheric Science (Vol. 31, No. 8, 1974), pp. 1917-33; The Night After, op. cit., p. 96.

The computer used at the CCAS, a BESM-6, takes 40 hours for each simulation ( O. Moroz , 'Formula predosterezheniya', Literaturnaya gazeta, 25 December 1985, p. 12).

V.V. Alexandrov and N.N. Moiseev , op. cit

E.g., M. Khenchinskii , 'Sovetskaya voenno-ekonomicheskaya doktrina v epokhu raketno-yademogo oruzhiya', in Problemy Vostochnoi Yevropy, Vols. 13-14 (New York, 1985), pp- 62-93.

E.g., R.L. Garthoff , Detente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1985), pp. 768-85.

M.A. Gareev , M.V. Frunze - voennyi teoretik (Moscow, 1985 ), p. 240; see also p. 104.

Ibid. p. 417.

K. Bochkarev , 'Vopros o sotsiologicheskom aspekte bor'by protiv sil agressii i voiny', Voennaya mysl' (No. 9, 1968), p. 1.

D.A. Volkogonov , 'Fantasty i "zvezdnye voiny" ', Oktyabr' (No. 1, 1986), p. 164.

A. Yakovlev , 'Confrontation is Anomaly in International Relations ', Twrntieth Century and Peace (No. 2, 1985), p. 24.

Filosofskoe nasledie V I Lenina i problemy sovremennoi voiny (Moscow. 1972), p. 37.

Gubitel'nye posledstviya yadernoi voiny (social'no-ekonomicheskie aspekty) (Moscow, 1984).

Yu.Ya. Kirshin and V.M. Popov , 'Problemy voiny i mira: nekotorye itogi issledovanii', Voprosy filosofii, No. 2, 1986, p. 16.

The reality of the internal debate in the period 1970-72 is vouched for by Ilya Zemtsov, at that time a member of the editorial board of the Information Bulletin of the Soviet Sociological Association and now resident in Israel. ('Sociology in the Grip of Politics', Crossroads, Spring 1980).

A.M. Obukhov and G.S. Golitsyn , 'Vozmozhnye atmosfemye posledstviya yadernogo konflikta', Zemlya i Vselennaya (No. 6, 1983), p. 4: Mir i razorzezhenie. nauchnye dssledovaniya 1984 (Moscow, 1984 ), pp. 101-2.

The Night After op. cit., pp. 4-5.

SCOPE ENUWAR Newsletter (No. 18, February 1986).

Q. Moroz, op. cit.

E.g., S. Kapitsa , 'Eschatology of Nuclear Age', Twentieth Century and Peace (No. 6, 1985), p. 47.

V. Gol'danskii and S. Kapitsa , 'Ne dopustit' katastrofy', Izvestiya, 25 July 1984, p. 5.

Twentieth Century and Peace (No. 8, 1 984).

The Night After op. cit., p. 5. Elsewhere, Velikhov directly cites Soviet military literature, without explaining that this is what he is doing: 'Contemporary weapons of mass destruction are means of collective suicide and not "a more effective means of conducting military operations" ' ( Ye. Velikhov , 'Global'naya ekologicheskaya katastrofa', Literaturnaya gazeta, 22 January 1986, p. 14).

V.V. Alexandrov and N.N. Moiseev , op. cit

G.A. Suglobov . 'Traditsii i patrioticheskoe vospitanie', Voprosy filosofii (No. 6, 1985), p. 47.

V.V. Alexandrov and N.N. Moiseev , op. cit

Golitsyn reports that Academician Gvishiani, Chairman of the State Committee on Science and Technology and a Vice-Chairman of the Council of Ministers, has been briefed at length (answer to question on lecture tour, November 1984). As Gvishiani, exceptionally for a senior State official, is himself a scientist by background, this may well be an atypical case.

Statement by S. Kapitsa at the Public Forum. US Senate , Washington, DC, 8 December 1983 .

J. Rotbiat and A. Pascolini , The Arms Race at a Time of Decision: Annals of Pugwash 1983 ( London: Macmillan, 1984), pp. 23-4.

'Summary document on the work of the Soviet press and mass media to educate the public about the results of recent scientific research into the global, long-term, climatic and biological consequences of nuclear war' (exact origin unclear).

All-Union Conference of Scientists for the Salvation of Humanity from the Threat of Nuclear War, for Disarmament and Peace. 17- 19 May 1983.

Vestnik Akademii Nauk SSSR (No.9. 1983).

The report in the Georgian press ('Za mir, protiv yadernoi ugrozy', Zarya Vostoka. 23 November 1983) informs the reader that 'even a relatively small nuclear exchange... will lead to catastrophic climatic consequences for the whole Earth, to the so-called nuclear winter', but does not explain how. The report by Izvestiya's correspondent in Tbilisi ( T. Chanturiya , 'Vesomyi vklad sovetskoi nauki', Izvestiya, 23 November 1983) contains no information on nuclear winter whatsoever.

See P.R. Ehrlich , et. al.. op. cit, pp. 133-53.

'Uchenye predosteregayut', Pravda, 23 November 1983. The delay in the appearance of this report, concealed by the absence of dates in it, is suggestive of internal conflict.

E.g., 'Ubrat' damoklov mech ustrasheniya'. Literaturnaya gazeta, 8 February 1984, pp. 1, 15. Here the explanation of nuctear winter is given by Olof Palme, who is being interviewed; this technique avoids the implication of full official recognition.

Several pages on nuclear winter in one book draft were cut to a single paragraph.

V. Gol'danskii and S. Kapitsa. op. cit. On the very same day there appeared another article: N. Moiseev , 'Mir poste yadernogo udara - prognoz EVM', Moskovskii Komsomolets 25 July 1984.

O. Moroz. op. cit, and Ye. Velikhov. op. cit

Priroda (No. 6, 1985) - articles by A.M. Kuzin (p. 17), G.S. Golitsyn (p. 22), M.I. Budyko (p. 30), G.L. Stenchikov (p. 39) and Yu. M. Svirezhev (p. 51).

The Night After, op. cit.

N.S. Vitrenko , A.M. Kostrov and K.A. Korolev. Provedenie zanyalii po grazhdanskoi oborone — metodicheskoe posobie (Moscow. 1985), p. 6.

F.Burlatskii . Voennye igry (Moscow. 1984), p. 101.

Statement by S. Kopitsa. op. cit.

V.V. Alexandrov and N.N. Moiseev , op. cit

Ibid.

Ibid

See Committee of Soviet Scientists for Peace, Against Nuclear Threat , Global Consequences of Nuclear War and the Developing Countries (Moscow, 1984); A. Gromyko , 'Ecological Disaster: Impact on the Third World ', The Night After. , op. cit., p. 113.

V.S. Shaposhnikov , 'Sovremennoe antivoennoe dvizhenie - vazhnyi faktor bor'by zamir', in Miri razoruzhenie., nauchnye issledovaniya (Moscow, 1982), p- 128.

Committee of Soviet Scientists , op. cit, pp. 39-40.

A. Gromyko , op. cit, p. 116.

Ibid. , op. cit, p. 133.