Allison and the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Review of the Bureaucratic Politics Model of Foreign Policy Decision-Making

Colin Gray , The Soviet-American Arms Race (Farnborough: Saxon House, 1976), p. 28.

See M. Halperin , Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Washington: Brookings, 1974); M. Halperin and A. Kanter , "Introduction" in their, Readings in American Foreign Policy (Boston: Little Brown , 1973), pp. 1-42; M. Halperin , "Why Bureaucrats Play Games," Foreign Policy (No. 2, 1971), pp. 70-90; M. Halperin , "The Decision to Deploy the ABM," World Politics (Vol. 25, 1972), pp. 62-95; and his article with Graham Allison - G. Allison and M. Halperin , "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications," in R. Tanter and R. Ullman (eds.), Theory and Policy in International Relations (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1972), pp. 40-79.

M. Destler , Presidents, Bureaucrats and Foreign Policy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1972).

J. Steinbrunner , The Cybernetic Theory of Decision (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1974).

R. Gallucci , Neither Peace Nor Honor (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1975).

J. Spanier and E. Uslaner , How American Foreign Policy is Made (New York: Praeger, 1974).

See G. Allison , "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis " American Political Science Review (Vol. 63, 1969), pp. 689-718; and, G. Allison , Essence of Decision (Boston: Little Brown, 1971).

See G. Allison , "Questions About the Arms Race: Who's Racing Whom? A Bureaucratic Perspective," in R. Pfaltzgraff (ed.), Contending Approaches to Arms Control ( Lexington, Ma: Lexington, 1974), pp. 31-72; G. Allison , "Implementation Analysis: 'The Midding Chapter' in Conventional Analysis. A Teaching Exercise," in R. Zeckhouser et al., Aldine Cost Benefit Annual (Chicago: Aldine, 1975), pp. 361-391; G. Allison , "Military Capabilities and American Foreign Policy" Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (Vol. 406, 1973), pp. 17-37; G. Allison and F. Morris , "Armaments and Arms Control: Exploring Determinants of Military Weapons," Daedalus (Vol. 104, 1975), pp. 99-130; G. Allison and P. Szanton , Remaking Foreign Policy (New York: Basic Books, 1976).

See G. Allison and M. Halperin op. cit.

See Barton J. Bernstein , "The Week We Almost Went To War," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 32, February 1976), p. 17.

J. Cornford , "The Illusion of Decision," British Journal of Political Science (VoL 4, 1974), p. 234.

H. Simon , Administrative Behaviour : A Study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organization (New York: Free Press, 1947).

J. March and H. Simon , Organizations (New York: J. Wiley , 1958).

R. Cyert and J. March , A Behavioural Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1961).

W. Wagner , "Dissolving the State: Three Recent Perspectives on International Relations ," International Organization (Vol. 28, 1974), p. 450.

A. Horelick , A. Johnson and J. Sleisbruner , The Study of Soviet Foreign-Policy: Decision-Theory-Related Approaches (Sage Publications, 1975), p. 55.

D. Ball , "The Blind Men and the Elephant," Australian Outlook (Vol. 28,1974), p. 71.

R. Art , "Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy," Policy Sciences (Vol. 4, 1973), pp. 469-472.

J. Cornford, op. cit., p. 233.

See Allison, Essence of Decision, op. cit. For a discussion of the origins of Model II, and the debt to, inter alia, Simon, March and Simon, and Cyert and March, see pp. 69-78. For Model III's debt to Schilling, Huntingdon, Neustadt, and Hilsman, see pp. 147-162.

J. Cornford, op. cit., p. 234.

See Allison, Essence of Decision, op. cit., pp. 141-142.

Ibid. p. 142.

D. Hafner , "Bureaucratic Politics and 'Those Frigging Missiles': JFK, Cuba and U.S. Missiles in Turkey," Orbis (Vol. 21, 1977), pp. 307-333.

Ibid pp. 312-314.

B.J. Bernstein , "The Cuban Missile Crisis: Trading the Jupiters in Turkey," Political Science Quarterly (Vol. 95, Spring 1980), pp. 97-125.

Ibid. pp. 104-123.

Ibid. p. 103.

Ibid. see his footnote 24.

See Allison, Essence of Decision, op. cit., pp. 129-132.

Sorenson, quoted ibid, p. 129.

P. Williams , Crisis Management (London: Martin Robertson, 1976), pp. 128-129.

Ibid.

D. Caldwell , "A Research Note on the Quarantine of Cuba," International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 22, 1978), pp. 625-633.

Allison, Essence of Decision, op. cit., p. 107.

S. Krasner , "Are Bureaucracies Important? (or Allison Wonderland) ," Foreign Policy, No. 7, 1972, pp. 172-174.

Allison, Essence of Decision, op. cit., p. 107.

D. Ball, op. cit., pp. 77-78.

Ibid., p. 78.

See R. Art , op. cit, pp. 472-473; D. Ball , op. cit, p. 77; S. Krasner , op. cit, pp. 165-167.

D. Ball, ibid. p. 77.

For a discussion of this, see ibid. p. 71 and Krasner, op. cit., pp. 165-166.

R. Art, op. cit., p. 473.

See R. Art, ibid. pp. 477-480; D. Ball, op. cit., pp. 80-82; Krasner, op. cit., pp. 167-169; W. Kohl , "The Nixon-Kissinger Foreign Policy System and U.S.-European Relations" World Politics (Vol. 27, 1975), pp. 2-3; J. Spanier and E. Uslaner , How American Foreign Policy is Made (New York: Praeger , 1974) pp. 103-131; R. Steel "Cooling It" New York Review of Books (19th October, 1972), pp. 43-46.

S. Krasner, op. cit., p. 169.

R. Steel, op. cit., p. 45.

D. Ball, op. cit., p. 79.

Ibid.

G. Allison , Essence of Decision, op. cit, pp. 185-210.

A. Perlmutter , "The Presidential Political Center and Foreign Policy," World Politics (Vol. 27, 1974), p. 97.

T. Couloumbis and J. Wolfe , Introduction to International Relations (Engelwood Cliffs : Prentice-Hall, 1978), Chap. 7.

R. Steel , op. cit, p. 46.

S. Krasner, op. cit., pp. 160-161.

R. Art , op. cit, p. 486; D. Ball , op. cit, p. 92; S. Krasner , op. cit, p. 179; R. Jervis , Perception and Misperception in International Politics, ( Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp. 24-28.

R. Art, op. cit., p. 486.

For a critique along these lines, applied to the pluralist view of decision-making, see P. Bachrach and M. Baratz , "Decisions and Non-Decisions," American Political Science Review (Vol. 67, 1963), pp. 632-642.

S. Krasner, op. cit., p. 179.

R. Jervis, op. cit., p. 28.

D. Ball, op. cit., p. 92.

See, for example, Essence of Decision, op. cit., pp. 252-263.

C. Hill , "Theories of Foreign Policy Making for the Developing Countries," in C. Qapham (ed), Foreign Policy Making in Developing States (Farnborough: Saxon House, 1978), p. 2.

J.S. Migdal , "International Structure and External Behaviour," International Relations (1974), p. 519.

M. Brenner , "Bureaucratic Politics in Foreign Policy," Armed Forces and Society (Vol. 2, 1976), p. 332.

C. Gray , "How Does the Nuclear Arms Race Work?" Co-operation and Conflict (Vol. 9, 1974), p. 290.

H. Weil , "Can Bureaucracies be Rational Actors?", International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 19, 1975 ), p. 414.

A. Horelick et al., op. cit, pp. 41-42; K. Dawisha , "The Limits of the Bureaucratic Politics Model: Observations on the Soviet Case" Studies in Comparative Communism (Vol. XIII, 1980); M. Light , "Approaches to the Study of Soviet Foreign Policy ," paper presented to National Association for Soviet and East European Studies (Amrol Conference, 1980), pp. 14-19; C. Gray The Soviet American Arms Race, op. cit p. 30.

K. Dawisha, op. cit., p. 25.

W. Wallace , The Foreign Policy Process in Britain (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1975), p. 9.

W. Wallace and W. Paterson (eds.), Foreign Policy Making in Western Europe (Farnborough: Saxon House, 1978).

Ibid. p. 48.

Ibid, p. 124.

R. Wagner, op. cit., p. 451.

L. Freedman , "Logic, Politics and Foreign Policy Processes ," International Affairs (Vol. 52, 1976), pp. 435-436.

O. Holsti , "Review of Essence of Decision," Western Political Quarterly (Vol. 25, 1972), p. 138.

See G. Allison and M. Halperin, op. cit.

J. Cornford, op. cit., p. 242.

R. Wagner, op. cit., p. 451.

L. Freedman, op. cit.

Ibid. p. 449.

D. Ball, op. cit., p. 88.

D. Bobrow , International Relations : New Approaches (New York: Free Press , 1972), p. 41.

D. Bobrow , "The relevance potential of different products," in R. Tanter and R. Vilman (eds), Theory and Policy in International Relations ( Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1972), p. 206.

O. Holsti, op. cit., p. 137.

See L. Bloomfield , The Foreign Policy Process ( Beverley Hills: Sage, 1974), p. 26 and footnote 17 on p. 51 for an explanation of this.

D. Ball, op. cit., p. 88.

D. Caldwell , "Bureaucratic Foreign Policy-Making," American Behavioural Scientist (Vol. 21, 1977), pp. 99-100.

M. Steiner , "The Elusive Essence of Decision," International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 21, 1977), pp. 189-190.

Ibid. p. 421.

E. Yanarella , " 'Reconstructed Logic' and 'Logic-in-use' in Decision-Making Analysis: Graham Allison," Policy (Vol. 8, 1975), p. 158.

Ibid pp. 162-164.

Ibid. pp. 164-167.

Ibid. p. 172.