The Global Setting and Transition to Democracy: Preliminary Conjectures *

Abstract

The main concern of this paper is to lay the foundation for achieving a better understanding of the relevance of the global setting to the prospects for, and obstacles to, democratic governance at the state level. Exploring the global dimensions of democratizing potential at the state level, however, is at once an elusive and complex task. For one thing, it is difficult to establish convincing causal linkages. At the same time, the interaction between the global setting and national political developments involves a plethora of elements difficult to assess in terms of their relative importance. This paper, then, develops some general hypotheses about the impact of the global setting on democratizing potential and considers some broad guidelines for policymakers dedicated to the promotion of democratic potential.