‘Integrative’ computer modeling, a method for analyzing policy implications, was used to project the international energy situation until 1989. The increasing dependence of the industrialized countries on Third World energy resources indicated a vulnerability to supply interuptions in those countries. Policy changes aimed at reducing this vulnerability were modeled. Alternatives for limiting energy consumption in industrialized countries proved more effective than alternatives for increasing the production of energy in those countries. The analysis centered on North America as the industrialized region which is most rapidly becoming dependent on Third World resources.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BoydR. (1972). World dynamics: a note. Science, 177, 11 Aug., 516.
2.
Chase Manhattan Bank, Energy Economics Division (1972). Outlook for Energy in the United States to 1985. Chase Manhattan Bank, June.
3.
DarmstadterJ. (1971). Energy in the World Economy, 43.
4.
ForresterJ. (1971a). Counter-intuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review.
5.
ForresterJ. (1971b). World Dynamics.
6.
IrwinJ.N.II (US Undersecretary of State) (1972). The international implications of the energy situation. Department of State Bulletin, LXVI, 1714, 1 May, 626.
7.
Meadows (1972). The Limits to Growth.
8.
National Petroleum Council (US) (1971). U.S. Energy Outlook, An Initial Appraisal, 1971–1985. Vol. 1 or first section, Vol. 2.
9.
SchurrS.H. (1971). Middle Eastern Oil and the Western World.
10.
OilShell (1972). The National Energy Position, Shell Oil, Feb.
11.
SpinradB.L. (1970). Nuclear power growth outlook. Estimate by B.L. Spinrad of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Industry, Aug., 36.
12.
UN. World Population Prospects. (ST/SOA/Series A/41) ‘medium’ estimate.
13.
US Bureau of Mines (1971). Estimate presented in: The President's Energy Message. Hearings before the Senate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, 15 June, 104.
14.
US Department of the Interior, Office of Oil and Gas (1971). Estimate in: Defense Production Act, Progress Report No. 50. US Congress Joint Committee on Defense Production (hearings), 2 Aug.
15.
US Federal Power Commission (1972). Report on 1970 National Power Survey. As cited in Nuclear Industry, Apr., 11.
16.
US Senate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs (1971). Considerations in the Formulation of National Energy Policy (hearings).
