Simulation Study of Confusion at Terminal Train Stations Caused by Earthquake Warnings *

Abstract

Three simulation models with different areas of application are developed in this report to predict the risk posed by the rapid return to their homes of people around terminal stations immediately after earthquake warnings issued in daytime. These are also useful tools to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the risk. The applications of these models to several terminal stations and train lines with many passengers were carried out and the results indicate the following:

1. Around 30–40 percent of the people around terminal stations should walk home.

2. Those who intend to take trains should go to terminal stations three or four hours ahead of the time they might otherwise need.

3. Strong traffic control at passages and wicket gates should be undertaken by police officers and station staff as soon as possible.

4. It is very important to make an “earthquake diagram” and to keep it as available as possible.

5. Public officers involved in the planning for the prevention of disasters should build “information bases” at terminal stations to announce various types of information to waiting passengers after earthquake warnings have been issued.

6. Finally, public officers and managers of businesses around terminal stations should inform people for whom they are responsible, about the circumstances anticipated and the measures mentioned above.