Debate over gun control and gun rights has energized but not explained the seesaw nature of national gun policy making. Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) aids in understanding that process, the gun policies it produces, and the roles of the ideologically opposed coalitions that are their sources. Gun ownership remains closely related to public preferences about gun policy, and the size of the gun-owning population has begun to diminish. In this analysis, the authors find that rifle and shotgun ownership responded little to national policy changes, but handgun ownership responded to both secular and policy influences. The results are that more Americans than ever before are saying “no” to gun ownership. Fewer are saying “yes,” but those who do own guns have been saying “load me up.” PET provides a framework for analyzing these changes and for anticipating some of their implications for public administrators.
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