Risk Factors for Violent Victimisation and Injury from Six Years of the British Crime Survey

Abstract

Identifying factors that increase the likelihood of victimisation and injury reveals the considerable variability across groups and between incidents. It also allows the efficient allocation of prevention resources to protect those at greatest risk of harm. In this study, three statistical models were developed to identify risk factors for violent victimisation, violent injury and assault-related treatment at an Emergency Department (ED). The cross-sectional sample included all respondents in successive sweeps of the British Crime Survey between 2002/03 and 2007/08 (n = 261,238). Based on logistic regression, risk factors for violent victimisation included male gender, younger age, being divorced or separated, lower household income, living in an urban area and frequency of visiting a licensed premises. Among victims of violence, sustaining an injury was associated with weapon use and degree of alcohol intoxication. Among those injured in violence, weapon use, alcohol intoxication and being black increased risk of treatment at an ED. While sociodemographic factors can be used to predict incidence of victimisation, offence-specific factors offer greater predictive validity in predicting harm outcomes.