What drives support for authoritarian populist parties in Eastern and Central Europe?

Abstract

Using data from the European Social Survey (2002–2018), we examine the rise of the far right in nine east-central European states in the last half of their third post-communist decade: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, and Slovakia. For many in the region in 2018 religion remained a cornerstone of national identity even as the nation struggled with the institutional demands of democracy in the aftermath of a global economic recession and the 2015 migration crisis. While far-right parties had many paths to success, our results suggest that respondents affiliated with a religious denomination were more likely to vote for the authoritarian populist party and the most religious were even more likely. Religion served as a tool of illiberalism. Because the appeal of populist parties that combine exclusionary anti-immigrant and anti-diversity rhetoric with generous benefits for citizens may transcend regional historical and political boundaries, the role of religiosity in these findings merits further consideration. Autocratic leaders in some states used Church support for traditional culture and social welfare payments to families and tax rebates to secure electoral victories for themselves and guide party establishments and the civil society away from judicial independence and a free press that could expose corruption. It is not inconceivable that authoritarian populism propped up by ethno-nationalism and social welfare benefits could gain sufficient scope, direction, and durability to undermine the European Union and serve as a beacon of intolerance.