This article aims to picture a potential future of probation in Europe based on a very well known principle of probation practice: that future behaviour can be predicted based on past behaviour. Of course, this estimation is based on the assumption that no ‘black swans’ (Taleb, 2001) will show up in the future. The estimation looks in particular to the legislative aspects relevant to probation practice. This article concludes on a rather optimistic note by suggesting that while there seems to be a European trend towards harmonization and penal expansionism there is still room for innovation and local developments.
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