Ideological engineering against a postmaterialist shift: China’s pro-democratic but regime-supporting generations

Abstract

Have decades of socioeconomic modernisation led to a pro-democratic cultural shift in China? Some contend that China’s cultural change aligns with the postmaterialist theory, suggesting recent generations are more supportive of democracy, while others find the political socialisation theory compelling, claiming that younger generations are less pro-democratic. This article contributes to the ongoing debate by providing refined conceptualisations of political values and attitudes. Our analysis of the 2011, 2016, and 2019 waves of the Asian Barometer Survey data uncovers a dual dynamic: younger, postmaterialist generations exhibit stronger democratic values, while simultaneously demonstrating greater support for the current regime and weaker endorsement of competitive elections (i.e. weaker democratic attitudes). This paradox suggests that the democracy-promoting effects of socioeconomic modernisation coexist with regime-supporting effects of China’s evolving political/ideological environment. We highlight the possibility that the success of China’s recent ideological engineering may ultimately hinge on the regime’s capacity to deliver democratic goods.