Using a multivariate regression analysis, this article examines linkages in major parties’ performance that contested legislative assembly and Parliamentary elections in India held within the subsequent 18 months over the period 1980–2009. The results are analysed according to a range of variables including party identity, incumbency and geographical region. The study’s finding that for a number of parties there is a strong and statistically significant linkage corroborates earlier studies and suggests that the allocation of resources by major parties to Legislative Assembly campaigns may be an effective strategy for maximising the party’s share of votes in subsequent Parliamentary elections.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlfordJ.HibbingJ.R. (1981) ‘Increasing Incumbency Advantage in the House’, Journal of Politics, 43(4): 1042–61.
2.
BlackJ.H. (1984) ‘Revisiting the Effects of Canvassing on Voting Behaviour’, Canadian Journal of Political Science, XVII(2): 351–74.
3.
BrassP.R. (1990) The Politics of India Since Independence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
4.
CartyR. KennethEaglesMunroe (1999) ‘Do Local Campaigns Matter? Campaign Spending, the Local Canvass and Party Support in Canada’, Electoral Studies, 18(1): 69–87.
ChatterjiRakhahari (1988) ‘Democracy and the Opposition in India’, Economic and Political Weekly, 23(17) (23April): 843–7.
7.
ChhibberPradeep (2009) ‘Are National Elections Any More Than Aggregations of State-Level Verdicts?’, Economic and Political Weekly, 44(39)(26September): 58–63.
8.
CollieM. (1981) ‘Incumbency, Electoral Safety, and Turnover in the House of Representatives, 1952–1976’, American Political Science Review, 75(1): 119–31.
9.
DenverD.HandsG. (1997) ‘Challengers, Incumbents and the Impact of Constituency Campaigning in Britain’, Electoral Studies, 16(2): 175–93.
10.
EndersbyJames W.GalatasSteven E.RackawayChapman B. (2002) ‘Closeness Counts in Canada: Voter Participation in the 1993 and 1997 Federal Elections’, The Journal of Politics, 64(2): 610–31.
11.
FreireA. (2004) ‘Second Order Elections and Electoral Cycles in Democratic Portugal’, South European Society & Politics, 9(3): 54–79.
12.
GarandJ.C.GrossD.A. (1984) ‘Changes in the Vote Margins for Congressional Candidates: A Specification of Historical Trends’, American Political Science Review, 78(1): 17–30.
13.
GujaratiDamodar N. (2002) Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition.New York: McGraw-Hill.
14.
HardgraveRobert L. (1984) ‘India on the Eve of Elections: Congress and the Opposition’, Pacific Affairs, 57(3): 404–28.
15.
HewittVernon (2003) ‘An Area of Darkness, Still? The Political Evolution of Ethnic Identities in Jammu and Kashmir, 1947–2001’. In GangulyR.MacduffI. (Eds), Ethnic Conflict & Secessionism in South and Southeast Asia: Causes, Dynamics, Solutions (pp. 59–98). New Delhi and London: SAGE Publications.
JaffrelotChristopheVerniersGilles (2009) ‘India’s 2009 Elections: The Resilience of Regionalism and Ethnicity’. South Asia Multidisciplinary Academic Journal, 3: 1–17. At http://samaj.revues.org/2787 (consulted 15 March 2015).
18.
JefferyCharlieHoughDaniel (2003) ‘Regional Elections in Multi-Level Systems’, European Urban and Regional Studies, 10(3): 199–212.
KumarJayesh (2003) ‘Parliamentary Elections and Political Parties’, Journal of Indian School of Political Economy, 15(3): 633–46.
21.
KumarSanjay (2004) ‘Increasing Fluidity in Electoral Contests: Is this Mere Anti-incumbency?’. In VoraR.PalshikarS. (Eds), Indian Democracy: Meanings and Practices (pp. 362–79). New Delhi: SAGE Publications.
MarshM. (1998) ‘Testing the Second-order Election Model After Four European Elections’, British Journal of Political Science, 28(4): 591–607.
25.
PalshikarSuhasYadavYogendra (2009) ‘Principal State Level Contests and Derivative National Choices: Electoral Trends in 2004–09’, Economic and Political Weekly, 44(6) (7February): 55–62.
26.
Pérez-NievasS.BonetE. (2008) ‘Differential Voting for Ethnoregionalist Parties in Multilevel Electoral Systems’. In EijkC.V.D.SchmittH. (Eds), The Multilevel Electoral System of the EU (pp. 59–88). Mannheim: Mannheim Centre for European Social Research & CONNEX.
27.
WebbMatthew J.WijeweeraAlbert (2012) ‘Correlations in Party Performance in State Legislative Assembly and Subsequent Parliamentary Elections in India 1980–2009’. South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies, 35(3): 546–69.
28.
WeinerMyron (1982) ‘Congress Restored: Continuities and Discontinuities in Indian Politics’, Asian Survey, 22(4): 339–55.
29.
WhiteleyP.F.SeydP. (1994) ‘Local Party Campaigning and Electoral Mobilization in Britain’, Journal of Politics, 56(1): 242–52.
