Using State Election Results to Predict the Fortunes of National Parties in Federal Polls in India

Abstract

Using a multivariate regression analysis, this article examines linkages in major parties’ performance that contested legislative assembly and Parliamentary elections in India held within the subsequent 18 months over the period 1980–2009. The results are analysed according to a range of variables including party identity, incumbency and geographical region. The study’s finding that for a number of parties there is a strong and statistically significant linkage corroborates earlier studies and suggests that the allocation of resources by major parties to Legislative Assembly campaigns may be an effective strategy for maximising the party’s share of votes in subsequent Parliamentary elections.