Prediction of Outstanding Achievement in the Natural Sciences *

Abstract

The Institute for Test Development and Talent Research is conducting a longitudinal study which started in 1973 on a nationally representative sample of 9,000 persons who then graduated from upper secondary sehool and were followed up ever since at five-to-six-year intervals. Out of this sample and, in addition, out of the former scholars of the most selective German national scholarship program, 40 persons were identified who had, by their mid-thirties and later on, achieved outstanding and influential research results in the natural scienees. This group was compared with the total representative group in terms of a number of potential predictor variables.

The most distinctive features were:

The outstanding scientists had achieved much higher performance both in sehool and in university.

They pursued to a higher extent curricular and extracurricular interests in the areas of natural sciences and mathematics during adolescence.

They were much more inclined to tackle intellectual problems (and did so more sucessfully), and they participated more frequently in academic competitions.

They had and have a much higher professional motivation: their career decisions were more heavily based on intrinsic and achievement-oriented motives, and the average time per week they devote to their work is considerably higher.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Bloom

B. S.

(Ed.). (1985). Developing talent in young people. New York: Ballantine Books.

Cohen

(1977). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. New York: Academic Press.

Gagné

(1985). Giftedness and talent: Reexamining a reexamination of the definitions. The Gifted Child Quarterly, 29, 103–112.

Ochse

(1990). Before the gates of excellence. The determinants of creative genius. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Roe

(1952a). A psychologist examines 64 eminent scientists. Scientific American, 187, 21–25.

Roe

(1952b). The making of a scientist. New York: Dodd, Mead.

Taylor

C. W.

Ellison

R. L.

(1967). Biographical predictors of scientific performance. Science, 155, 1075–1080.

Trost

(1987). Hochbegabte und eine Repräsentativgruppe deutscher Abiturienten in elfjähriger Längsschnittbeobachtung: Vergleich der Studien- und Berufswege. Ein Zwischenbericht. Empirische Pädagogik, 1, 6–26. (Comparison of academic and professional careers of a group of highly gifted and a representative group of German students. A prospective longitudinal study over 11 years.)

Trost

(1993). Prediction of excellence in school, university and work. In Heller

K. A.

Monks

F. J.

Passow

A. H.

(Eds.), International handbook of research and development of giftedness and talent (pp. 325–336). Oxford, New York, Seoul, Tokyo: Pergamon Press.

10.

Trost

Neitzke

Sieglen

(1991). Forschungsprojekt “Retrospektive Befragung erwachsener Begabter nach ihrer Jugend- und Schulzeit”. Abschlußbericht. Bonn: Institut für Test- und Begabungsforschung. (Research project “Retrospective analysis of the adolescence of highly gifted adults.” Final report.)

11.

Trost

Pauels

Schneider

(1976). Repräsentativerhebung an deutschen Abiturienten. Bonn: Institut für Test- und Begabungsforschung. (Representative study on German graduates from upper secondary school.)