Abstract
This study analyses five mergers in the Indian banking sector to capture the returns to shareholders as a result of the merger announcements using the event study methodology (Brown and Warner, 1980, 1985; and MacKinlay, 1997). These are mergers of the Times Bank with the HDFC Bank, the Bank of Madura with the ICICI Bank, the ICICI Ltd. with the ICICI Bank, the Global Trust Bank with the Oriental Bank of Commerce, and the Bank of Punjab with the Centurion Bank. The Fama and Miller (1972) market model and Cox and Portes. (1998) twofactor model form the theoretical framework of this study. The aim is to understand the shareholder wealth effects of bank mergers.
Using the single-factor model, the study finds that the average cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of the bidder banks is positive and substantial. These results are also statistically significant. Thus, the bidder banks got significant positive abnormal returns. The two-factor model results reveal that the merger announcement in the Indian private sector banks generated a positive and statistically significant CAR of 5.24 per cent, 7.83 per cent, and 8.59 per cent in a one-day, two-day, and three-day run-up window respectively to the shareholders of the bidder banks. The single-factor model finds that the combined CAR for all the target banks is positive, significant, and substantial. The combined CAR has been propped up due to very high CAR registered by the Bank of Madura. The bidder banks created a wealth of Rs 4,117.98 million in a one-day window (singlefactor model) as a result of the merger announcements. In the case of target banks, the shareholders of the Global Trust Bank and the Bank of Punjab appear to be the losers; they lost Rs 382.55 million in a one-day run-up window (single-factor model) and Rs 128.74 million in a one-day window (single-factor model) respectively. The Oriental Bank of Commerce and the Global Trust Bank combined lost 14.78 per cent in value on a weighted average basis in a 11-day period (-5, 5) window. This merger was the first major move to bail out a sick bank.
The merger announcements in the Indian banking industry have positive and significant shareholder wealth effect both for bidder and target banks. The market value weighted CAR of the combined bank portfolio as a result of merger announcement is 4.29 per cent in a threeday period (-1, 1) window and 9.71 per cent in a 11-day period (-5, 5) event window.