The Process of Exempt Immediate Relative Immigration to the United States 1

Abstract

To examine the chain migration issue, this article develops and analyzes a new data base that links information on a sample of exempt immediate relative immigrants in Fiscal Year 1985 with information on the characteristics of their petitioners or sponsors. The analysis generally does not indicate that an explosive increase in future chain migration of exempt immediate relative immigrants is likely in the next ten years. Two facts provide the main support for this conclusion: 1) the percentage or sponsors who were former immigrants themselves was low, approximately 36 percent and 2) the average time between the arrival of an immigrant to the United States and subsequent petitioning for an immediate relative was relatively long — about 12 years. There is, however, some evidence of greater chain migration among immigrants from Asia. The pattern of findings about chain migration based on data on immigrants from one year could change, however, which means that use of these findings as statements about the future must be made with caution.