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Abstract

In recent years, the vast majority of new immigrants to the United States have been admitted under the family reunification provisions of immigration law. Under this system, the potential for future immigration depends primarily on the magnitude of previous immigration and the size and geographic distribution of family networks of previous immigrants. This article explores the effect of “chaining” through the petitioning of relatives on the demand for future immigrant visas. The data for the study come from a 1986 survey of 3, 911 respondents from the Philippines and the Republic of Korea who were interviewed in Manila and Seoul just after they had received their U.S. immigrant visas. Analyses are conducted to derive different types of multipliers that may be used in estimating the effects of chain migration, including a Theoretical Multiplier, an Adjusted Multiplier and a Projected Multiplier. The empirical results for the Philippines and Korea indicate that the potential for future immigration through the family reunification entitlements of the immigration law is lower than has previously been suggested.

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Estimating the Immigration Multiplier: An Analysis of Recent Korean and Filipino Immigration to the United States 1

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