Population Innumeracy and Anti-Immigrant Violence: The Case of South Africa

Abstract

Several studies find links between immigrant population innumeracy and anti-immigrant attitudes. It seems that when people over-estimate the size of foreign-born populations in their country, they also tend to be more hostile toward them. But can these inflated perceptions also result in anti-immigrant actions and behaviors, even acts of violence? The current study examines this question with data from the South African Social Attitudes Survey from 2019. The nation of South Africa stands as an outlier when it comes to acts of xenophobia. Harassment, violence, vigilantism, and riots targeting foreigners occur with frightening regularity. It is also a context where misperceptions about immigrants are pervasive. But can these help to explain South Africa's anti-immigrant violence? The current research examines the association between population innumeracy and respondents’ reports of having participated in violent, anti-immigrant behaviors. It tests two theoretical processes based on Intergroup Threat Theory and Fazio's Attitudes-to-Behavior Process Model. The results indicate that population innumeracy is extraordinarily high in South Africa, among the highest ever recorded. Further, these misperceptions are associated with both a greater likelihood of reporting violent action against immigrants and a greater willingness to engage in violence if one hasn’t already. This is particularly true among the most extreme over-estimators. The associations are robust to several controls and hold in two different innumeracy operationalizations. They are also not mediated by perceptions of threat. The findings mark the first time that literature has demonstrated a link between innumeracy and anti-immigrant actions, which has several implications for future research.