Are They Still Aiming High? The Development of Educational Aspirations of Lower Secondary School Students With Immigrant Backgrounds in Germany

Abstract

Although research indicates that students with immigrant backgrounds often have higher educational aspirations than students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level, little is known about the longitudinal development of this difference in aspirations. This article analyzes how idealistic and realistic educational aspirations from Grade 5 until Grade 9 in Germany develop for students from various migrant groups, compared with those without immigrant backgrounds at the same school track and at the same level of school performance. Drawing on different theoretical assumptions, we examine to what extent students (increasingly) adapt their aspirations to their school performance toward the end of compulsory schooling. Our empirical analysis uses data from the first five waves (Grades 5–9; 2010/11–2014/15) of the National Educational Panel Study in Germany (N = 5,542). Random-effects model results show a positive association between students’ school performance and their idealistic and realistic aspirations, and this association tends to increase over time. However, there is no uniform pattern in students’ aspiration trajectories. Some migrant groups (Poland, Southern Europe, former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) have similar aspiration trajectories as students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level, while other groups (Turkey, Northern and Western Europe, and others) maintain higher idealistic aspirations. Controlling for school performance, only students of Turkish origin also maintain higher realistic aspirations until Grade 9. These findings allow us to better understand the conditions behind the educational disadvantages of some migrant groups and offer insights into how best to further mitigate inequalities in educational outcomes.

Keywords

educational aspirations aspiration adjustment students with immigrant backgrounds

Introduction

Students with immigrant backgrounds often have high educational aspirations, despite having below-average school performance (Feliciano and Lanuza 2016; Hill and Torres 2010; Salikutluk 2016). This phenomenon has been termed an “aspiration–achievement paradox” (Hill and Torres 2010). Students with immigrant backgrounds tend to make more ambitious educational choices than students without immigrant backgrounds and with similar school performance levels (Dollmann 2017, 2021; Jackson, Jonsson, and Rudolphi 2012; Jonsson and Rudolphi 2011; Van De Werfhorst and Hofstede 2007). However, so far, little is known about the longitudinal development of the high aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds. What happens after students with immigrant backgrounds have made their “bold choices” at their first educational transition (Jackson 2012)? Will “downward adaptation” occur over time, or do the high aspirations continue? Does the adaptation pattern vary by the type of aspirations (idealistic versus realistic)? This article addresses these research questions.

To do so, it analyzes how idealistic and realistic educational aspirations¹ from Grade 5 to Grade 9 in Germany develop for students with immigrant backgrounds, compared with students without immigrant backgrounds at the same school track and the same performance level. We develop and investigate the thesis that differences in realistic aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds, controlling for school track and grades, decrease over time, whereas differences in idealistic aspirations remain stable. After providing a brief overview of the German education system, we develop this thesis by (a) differentiating between idealistic and realistic aspirations (Haller 1968), (b) introducing students’ perceived probability of educational success as our main theoretical construct (Erikson and Jonsson 1996), and (c) exemplifying differences in the trajectories between idealistic and realistic educational aspirations. We predict that students with immigrant backgrounds will show downward adaptation of their high realistic aspirations over time while maintaining their high idealistic aspirations. Our empirical analyses use data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS),² starting with cohort Grade 5. This longitudinal dataset is very well-suited for our purposes because students’ educational aspirations and school performance are measured each year between Grades 5 and 9 and because various migrant groups are represented in the data.

This article makes several contributions to migration research. First, we analyze the longitudinal development of the high educational aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds in Germany, a country with a highly stratified education system (see section on the German education system).³ Most research on the longitudinal development of educational aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds has come from the United States (Feliciano and Lanuza 2016; Portes et al. 2010). Whereas undifferentiated education systems seem to generally evoke high educational aspirations, stratified education systems are thought to “impart a strong dose of realism” into students’ educational aspirations (Buchmann and Park 2009, 246). We focus on a country context with a highly stratified and selective education system—Germany (Dollmann et al. 2021). Such an education system gives little room to expect the maintenance of an “aspiration–achievement paradox” in the long run, due to the particularly high importance of school performance in this context. Germany is especially well-suited to an examination of the expected downward adaptation of the high aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds since, in such a context, an adjustment of (unrealistically) high aspirations to actual school performance seems particularly likely.

Second, we explicitly differentiate between realistic and idealistic educational aspirations (Stocké 2013). Whereas some authors assign greater importance to realistic aspirations because they account for structural obstacles (Feliciano and Lanuza 2016), others argue that idealistic aspirations comprise the motivational core of goal attainment and, thus, are especially relevant for educational decisions (Stocké 2013). Empirical studies examining the determinants (Bohon, Johnson, and Gorman 2006; Portes et al. 2010) and consequences of idealistic and realistic aspirations (Khattab 2015) suggest that, despite conceptual differences between the two constructs, both are relevant factors in explaining educational success.

The rationale for our focus on both realistic and idealistic educational aspirations is that we can expect different social implications from a decline of one or the other type of aspiration. Let us assume that both idealistic and realistic educational aspirations adjust downward by the end of compulsory education (e.g., in Germany). In this case, we might infer that students increasingly lose their desire to achieve higher education levels. Suppose that idealistic aspirations remain high, but realistic aspirations cool down. In that scenario, we can conclude that what is lacking is not motivation but the belief that students’ educational goal is realistically attainable (Bohon, Johnson, and Gorman 2006, 209). In short, we consider both realistic and idealistic educational aspirations in this article, since both are relevant social phenomena for long-term educational achievement. Moreover, a differentiation between these two types of aspirations allows clear conclusions about the underlying mechanisms of the educational achievement of students with immigrant backgrounds.

Moreover, to our knowledge, no other study has examined the longitudinal development of differences in realistic and idealistic aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds. Against this background, we predict and investigate different trajectories for these two types of aspirations (see above). The additional consideration of idealistic aspirations brings a clear added value to our empirical analysis because we can derive different social implications and, thus, divergent educational measures for mitigating educational inequalities by examining both constructs.

The German Education System

The German education system is one of the most selective and stratified education systems worldwide (Buchmann and Park 2009). After a common primary school period of four years (six years in some German states), families, in consultation with teachers, must decide which school track their child will next attend (see below). Both teachers’ recommendations, mainly based on school grades, and students’ grades themselves are central elements in families’ decision-making regarding their children's probability of completing the different types of lower secondary education (Maaz et al. 2008; Stocké 2007). Secondary schools differ in the length of education and the curricula's degree of academic orientation (Maaz et al. 2008). The length of education is five years at “Hauptschule,” six years at “Realschule,” and eight or nine years at “Gymnasium” (Maaz et al. 2008). The curricula at Hauptschule and Realschule are less academically oriented, while the Gymnasium prepares students for transition into tertiary education (Maaz et al. 2008). There are also schools with several educational tracks and comprehensive schools (Maaz et al. 2008). Whereas schools with several educational tracks predominantly combine lower and intermediate school tracks, comprehensive schools either differentiate students into subject-specific classes with different difficulty levels or offer integrated settings (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2016). Although secondary school types differ in terms of composition, length of education, and academic orientation, in all school types, students receive continuous performance feedback in the form of grades (Maaz et al. 2008).

Secondary schools’ composition varies according to students’ immigrant and social backgrounds (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2016). In 2012, around 41 percent of students without immigrant backgrounds attended a Gymnasium (27 percent Realschule, 18 percent integrated type, 9 percent Hauptschule, and 5 percent other school types), whereas the Gymnasium attendance rate was 26 percent among students with immigrant backgrounds (31 percent Realschule, 21 percent integrated type, 16 percent Hauptschule, and 6% other) (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2016, 174). Differences in educational participation between students with and without immigrant backgrounds are mainly attributable to the lower average socioeconomic background of students with immigrant backgrounds: considering these differences, the two groups’ educational participation is comparable (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2016, 174). Taking these differences into account, research on the educational achievement of students with immigrant backgrounds indicates that they are more likely to transfer to an academic track after the end of lower secondary schooling but less likely to successfully complete upper secondary education (Dollmann and Weißmann 2020; Dollmann et al. 2021).

Students graduating from Hauptschule or Realschule may, then, enroll in more advanced school types (Dollmann and Weißmann 2020). Educational decisions at that age (after Grade 9) are probably driven by students’ own educational goals, rather than by their parents’ goals, as students become increasingly independent of their parents (Gottfredson 2002; Müller and Karle 1993). However, specific grade requirements must also be fulfilled for successful school continuation (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2018). Students end their schooling with one of the three school-leaving certificates attainable in Germany: the “Hauptschulabschluss,” “Realschulabschluss,” and “Abitur,” among which the Abitur is the most academically demanding certificate that qualifies a student for continuing schooling in tertiary education (Maaz et al. 2008).

In summary, then, the German education system is characterized by rigorous selection and stratification into different school types, which vary according to the length of education, student composition, and the curricula's academic orientation. Common to all school types, however, is continuous performance feedback in the form of school grades. Since school grades are an essential criterion for educational transitions and for successfully obtaining a school-leaving certificate, a close connection between students’ school performance and their educational goals exists (Salikutluk 2016; Zimmermann 2020).

Theoretical Background and Literature Review

The Concept of Educational Aspirations

Educational aspirations are goals that relate to desired school-leaving certificates (Stocké 2013). The existing school-leaving qualifications constitute a set of alternatives, from which students choose the option that they consider subjectively valuable and potentially attainable (Lewin et al. 1944). The most ambitious option constitutes students’ idealistic aspirations, whereas realistic aspirations refer to the lower limit of this set of educational alternative (Gottfredson 2002). Thus, idealistic and realistic educational aspirations are conceptually different (Khattab 2015). Idealistic educational aspirations describe educational goals that are considered attainable under optimal conditions, whereas realistic educational aspirations refer to goals that are considered achievable with existing constraints (Haller 1968). It can even be argued that idealistic aspirations refer to value-driven wishes that are independent of the constraints to their realization, whereas realistic aspirations explicitly consider such constraints (Stocké 2013). Thus, idealistic aspirations can be expected to be relatively unaffected by barriers and constraints and remain relatively stable over time, whereas realistic aspirations are continuously adjusted according to the perceived probability of their realization.

Adaptation Processes of Educational Aspirations Over Time

We are mainly interested in the longitudinal development of the educational aspirations of students with and without immigrant backgrounds from Grade 5 until Grade 9. Thus, we focus on the most obvious factor that might elicit a change in aspirations: students’ school performance. We elaborate on the role of school performance in students’ adaptation of educational aspirations over time by drawing on rational choice theory and incorporating a longitudinal perspective.

Rational choice models aim at explaining decision behavior and have been widely applied to educational decisions (Breen and Goldthorpe 1997; Erikson and Jonsson 1996). However, several authors have also applied such models to explaining educational aspirations (Gabay-Egozi, Shavit, and Yaish 2015; Van De Werfhorst and Hofstede 2007; Zimmermann 2020), arguing that educational aspirations can be regarded as anticipated educational decisions (Manski 2004) and that, therefore, the same explanatory factors apply. We follow this argumentation. Rational choice models rely on the idea that educational decisions are the result of a rational calculation (Breen and Goldthorpe 1997; Erikson and Jonsson 1996). Individuals assess three parameters for all existing educational alternatives: benefits (e.g., labor market returns such as income), costs, and probability of success (Breen and Goldthorpe 1997; Erikson and Jonsson 1996). They, then, choose the alternative with the highest subjective expected utility (Breen and Goldthorpe 1997; Erikson and Jonsson 1996). This choice corresponds with individuals’ educational aspirations. Of the three abovementioned parameters, the perceived benefits and costs are probably time-constant at a given level of families’ socioeconomic status. However, the perceived probability of success is likely to vary over time, especially in reaction to changes in students’ school performance.

Students’ school performance is an essential indicator of the perceived probability of success because students consider their current school performance level when assessing the probability of completing an educational path (Stocké 2007). Thus, performance feedback at school, usually in the form of grades, affects students’ assessment of their success probability (Stocké 2007). However, although school performance is considered a major determinant of students’ realistic aspirations, we do not expect the same for their idealistic aspirations, since idealistic aspirations are relatively unaffected by possible constraining factors such as poor school performance (see above).

How do educational aspirations change over time? Because idealistic aspirations are conceptualized as independent of barriers to their realization, they can be expected to remain relatively stable over time. Regarding students’ realistic aspirations, we follow rational choice theory and expect that students adjust their realistic aspirations according to their perceived probability of success, which, in turn, is strongly influenced by their school performance. However, we assume that the influence of students’ school performance on their realistic aspirations varies across their school careers. At the beginning of lower secondary school, students’ school performance might not (yet) be regarded as very predictive of their final educational degree, as their graduation is still far in the future and the outcome is subject to considerable uncertainty. However, as the end of compulsory schooling approaches, school grades should have a decisive importance for students’ realistic aspirations regarding their further educational career, as suggested by the “strong dose of realism” argument (Buchmann and Park 2009). Thus, we expect that the association between students’ school performance and their realistic aspirations becomes stronger over time, as their educational goal approach (Guo et al. 2015; also see Becker and Gresch 2016).

What do we know from empirical studies about the longitudinal development of students’ aspirations and the role of school performance in this adaptation? Owing to data availability, existing studies mainly investigate the realistic aspirations of students in a US context (e.g., Andrew and Hauser 2011; Kao and Tienda 1998; Park, Wells, and Bills 2015). Collectively, these studies suggest that students usually start with high educational aspirations that seem to decrease until Grade 10 and then (sometimes) increase again (Andrew and Hauser 2011; Kao and Tienda 1998; Park, Wells, and Bills 2015). We are aware of only one study on the longitudinal development of students’ idealistic aspirations: it shows no significant changes in the likelihood of having high versus low aspirations between ages 14 and 16 in England (Gutman and Schoon 2018).

Various studies confirm a positive correlation between students’ school performance and their educational aspirations (Anders and Micklewright 2015; Andrew and Flashman 2017; Bozick et al. 2010; Guo et al. 2015; Gutman and Schoon 2018; Johnson and Reynolds 2013). Studies also show that the development of realistic aspirations adapts to students’ school performance (Andrew and Hauser 2011; Morgan 2006; Park, Wells, and Bills 2015). However, the longitudinal development of this association seems less clear. Some scholars find an increase (Guo et al. 2015), others a decrease (Andrew and Hauser 2011), and some demonstrate persistence in the association between school performance and aspirations (Bozick et al. 2010).

To sum up, previous studies mainly derive from the United States and examine the development of realistic aspirations in upper secondary education. So far, little information exists about the development of idealistic aspirations and aspiration development before Grade 8 and in educational contexts other than the United States. Equally important, few studies have investigated how aspirations adapt to school performance over time, and their results are not consistent. Studies that compare the longitudinal trajectories of idealistic and realistic aspirations are virtually non-existent.

Educational Aspirations in Immigrant Families

This article focuses on differences in educational aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds. Here, “immigrant background” refers to students who were themselves born abroad (first generation) or whose parents (second generation) or grandparents (third generation) were born abroad (see section on data and methods for a detailed definition). Because the use of such terms is highly debated owing to their “detrimental capacity to reify ethnic categories” (Elrick and Schwartzman 2015, 1539), we clearly indicate that we refer to families’ migration experience, which is directly theoretically linked to our phenomenon of interest—educational aspirations.

Empirical studies in the United States and Europe demonstrate that when school performance is controlled for, immigrants and their descendants usually exhibit high educational aspirations (Acar 2018; Bowden and Doughney 2010; Brinbaum and Cebolla-Boado 2007; Gil-Hernández and Gracia 2018; Glick and White 2004; Hadjar and Scharf 2019; Kao and Tienda 1995; Raleigh and Kao 2010; Rosenbaum and Rochford 2008; Salikutluk 2016). Since these high aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds seem to be in contradiction to their lower average school performance, the literature on aspirations also speaks of an “aspiration–achievement paradox” for this group (Hill and Torres 2010; Salikutluk 2016). However, pronounced differences exist between migrant groups in this respect, and not all migrant groups show high educational aspirations (Hadjar and Scharf 2019). In Germany, especially high educational aspirations are reported for Turkish-origin students (Acar 2018; Hadjar and Scharf 2019; Salikutluk 2016). Therefore, the question arises as to why some migrant groups tend to have high educational aspirations and why others do not.

The migration literature discusses different theoretical mechanisms as possible explanations for high educational aspirations in immigrant families (for an overview, see Becker and Gresch 2016; Salikutluk 2016). Scholars argue that immigrants are a positively selected group in terms of work ethic, motivation, and optimism (“immigrant optimism”) (Kao and Tienda 1995; Vallet 2006): in most cases, they migrate to another country to improve their living conditions and provide a “better life” for their children. This latter goal is usually linked to high educational aspirations (Louie 2001; Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012), and immigrant parents transmit these aspirations to their children (Louie 2001; Salikutluk 2013). Related to this optimism, immigrant parents might use an “alternative frame of reference” when evaluating their children's educational potential (Becker and Gresch 2016). Bad grades might be attributed to temporary migration-specific obstacles such as language barriers, and parents might use alternative indicators (e.g., the child's motivation) for assessing their child's educational potential (Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012, 118). Such use of an alternative frame of reference might lead to higher educational aspirations than would have been expected based on objective school performance.

Immigrant families’ possible “information deficits” regarding the host country's education system constitute another reason for high aspirations (Kao and Tienda 1998; Relikowski, Schneider, and Blossfeld 2009). Owing to their lack of familiarity with the host country's education system, immigrants might be less aware of existing barriers to higher education and less capable of accurately assessing school performance, which could result in unrealistically high educational aspirations (Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012). The “blocked opportunities” framework argues that perceived discrimination in the receiving country's labor market might lead to an “overcompensation” strategy in immigrant families, resulting in high educational goals (Kao and Tienda 1998). Finally, the “relative status maintenance motive” approach argues that immigrant parents might perceive that their children need to attain a higher education level in the host country to maintain the status that the parents had in their origin country (Becker and Gresch 2016).

All these approaches predict high educational aspirations among immigrant families. This article, however, focuses on whether these high aspirations are maintained throughout secondary schooling or whether downward adaptation takes place. Most of the abovementioned factors probably remain rather time-constant during this period, which would predict stable high aspirations. Two of the factors, however, can be clearly considered time-varying: information deficits and the use of an alternative frame of reference for evaluating the student's educational potential. We do not directly test both factors empirically. Instead, we draw on their implication that the importance of school performance increases over time. These approaches suggest that students are better informed about their further possible educational careers as the end of compulsory schooling approaches and as parents increasingly consider their children's school performance and stop pushing them toward unrealistic educational goals. This increased importance of school performance should lead to downward adaptation of high realistic aspirations among students with immigrant backgrounds (see above).

What is known so far about the aspiration trajectories of students with immigrant backgrounds? Empirical studies that solely focus on the longitudinal development of immigrant students’ educational aspirations are few and far between. Therefore, we also consider studies focusing on students from ethnic minorities in a broader sense (Andrew and Hauser 2011; Kao and Tienda 1998; Mau 1995; Mello 2009). Empirical studies from the United States show that ethnic minorities’ initial high educational aspirations are often maintained (Kao and Tienda 1998; Mello 2009). In the United States, white students with initial high educational aspirations are more likely to reduce those aspirations in the following years, compared with non-white students (Alexander, Bozick, and Entwisle 2008; Hanson 1994). It is also noteworthy that, in US and German studies, the association between school performance and educational aspirations is weaker among immigrant students and ethnic minorities than among native whites (Mau 1995; McElvany et al. 2018). Longitudinal studies on this topic are limited. Only Andrew and Hauser (2011) compared white, black, and Latino Americans and found no differences in their adaptation processes. Note also that aspiration trajectories among immigrant students are often gendered: females usually exhibit higher aspiration levels (Feliciano and Rumbaut 2005)—a pattern also very common among students without immigrant backgrounds (Berrington, Roberts, and Tammes 2016; Gutman and Schoon 2018; Wells et al. 2011).

In summary, previous studies on aspiration trajectories of students with immigrant backgrounds have several limitations. The diversity of students with immigrant backgrounds is rarely considered in US studies, and many studies only compare broad ethnic categories (Andrew and Hauser 2011; Kao and Tienda 1998; Mello 2009). Studies on aspiration trajectories among different migrant groups, compared with students without immigrant backgrounds, are rare and typically do not consider the adaption process to school performance. To our knowledge, no study has examined either the longitudinal development of realistic and idealistic aspirations or the role of school performance in this process among students with and without immigrant backgrounds.

Research Design

This article addresses the research gaps identified in the last paragraph and examines how idealistic and realistic educational aspirations from Grade 5 until Grade 9 in Germany develop for students from various migrant groups, compared with students without immigrant backgrounds. It gives particular attention to adaptations of aspirations to school performance. Idealistic aspirations are understood to be independent of their realization prospects, whereas students are expected to adjust their realistic aspirations according to their school performance, particularly as the end of compulsory schooling approaches and students receive a “strong dose of realism”. These theoretical expectations lead to the following hypothesis:

H1: Students’ idealistic aspirations will remain hardly affected by their school performance throughout secondary schooling. In contrast, the positive association between students’ school performance and their realistic aspirations will increase between Grades 5 and 9.

The stable and weak association between school performance and idealistic aspirations can be expected for all students, so we do not expect any differential effects by immigrant background here. In contrast, the increase in the association between school performance and realistic aspirations is probably even stronger for students with immigrant backgrounds, owing to a catch-up effect: This catch-up effect may be attributable to the weak initial association between school performance and realistic aspirations among immigrant students, due to information deficits or their families’ use of an alternative frame of reference. However, as these factors’ relevance diminishes over time, the increase in the importance of school performance for students’ realistic aspirations can be expected to be particularly strong among students with immigrant backgrounds. Therefore, we hypothesize:

H2: There is a stable and weak association between school performance and idealistic aspirations for all students. In contrast, the increase in the importance of school performance for students’ realistic aspirations will be stronger for students with immigrant backgrounds.

Proceeding from the finding in the migration literature that students with immigrant backgrounds have higher educational aspirations (net of school performance), Hypotheses 1 and 2 imply that the initially higher idealistic aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds (e.g., owing to immigrant optimism) remain stable over time, as there is no adjustment to school performance. Contrarily, we expect downward adaptation of their initially higher realistic aspirations, as their school performance increases in importance. For students without immigrant backgrounds, such downward adaptation should be much less pronounced, as we do not expect an initial “aspiration–achievement paradox.” These theoretical expectations lead to the following hypothesis:

H3: The initial difference in idealistic aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds (net of school performance) will remain stable between Grades 5 and 9, whereas the difference in their realistic aspirations will decrease.

Figure 1 illustrates the expected overall pattern from Hypothesis 3 (controlling for school track and school performance).

Figure 1.

Theoretically expected development of students' idealistic and realistic aspirations by immigrant background during lower secondary schooling (controlled for school performance).

Data and Methods

Data

The data used in this article are obtained from NEPS⁴—a multi-cohort study that aims to examine the educational pathways of individuals in Germany over the life course (Blossfeld and Roßbach 2019). We selected the starting cohort “Grade 5” as our analysis sample. This cohort follows the educational paths of students from Grade 5 through Grade 9 and beyond and includes rich, self-reported data from students and their parents, as well as data from teachers and school administrators. Data were collected annually with a two-stage random sample. The first included a random sample of schools and the second a random sample of up to two Grade 5 classes, depending on school size. We restricted the sample to the first five waves, which were collected between 2010/2011 and 2014/2015, covering the course of lower secondary schooling up to Grade 9. Moreover, we excluded students at special-needs schools because these students were not asked about their educational aspirations (Leibniz-Institut für Bildungsverläufe 2018). Our final sample included 5,542 students. When data collection began in school year 2010–2011, the students were, on average, 11 years old, 48 percent were female, and 34 percent had immigrant backgrounds (Table 1 presents the distribution of migrant groups). The measures examined here are introduced in the next section and presented in Table 1.

Table 1.

Descriptive Results.

		Measurement time (panel waves)
		t1		t2		t3		t4		t5
Variables	Range	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.
Educational aspirations
Idealistic educational aspirations (Ref.: “no Abitur”)	0–1	0.70		0.71		0.72		0.71		0.69
Realistic educational aspirations (Ref.: “no Abitur”)	0–1	0.57		0.53		0.50		0.53		0.54
School performance
GPA	1–6	4.45	0.87	4.13	0.83	4.03	0.84	3.98	0.83	3.91	0.84
Immigrant background
Germany (Ref.)	0–1	0.66
Turkey	0–1	0.07
Former USSR	0–1	0.05
Poland	0–1	0.03
Former SFRY	0–1	0.03
Southern EU	0–1	0.03
NoWe EU	0–1	0.03
Others	0–1	0.10
Controls
Gender (Ref.: “male”)	0–1	0.48
Educational background (Ref.: “minimum Abitur”)	0–1	0.50
School track (Ref.: “other tracks”)	0–1	0.45		0.45		0.48		0.46		0.45
Observations		5,542		5,542		5,542		5,542		5,542

Source: National Educational Panel Study (NEPS).

Note: These descriptive statistics are based on an N of 5,542 cases of the imputed dataset.

Abbreviations: M/% = arithmetic mean or percentage; S.D. = standard deviation; t = time; GPA = grade point average) USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics); SFRY (Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia); EU (Europe); NoWe (Northern and Western).

Measures

Students’ idealistic aspirations were assessed by asking them a single question: “Regardless of which school you go to and how good your grades are, what kind of school-leaving qualification would you like to have?” Provided answer categories ranged from “leave school without any qualification” to “the Abitur (university entrance qualification).” Owing to the Abitur's central importance for students’ further educational careers, we divided the answer categories into “Abitur” and “no Abitur”. Students’ realistic aspirations were captured by the question: “Considering everything you know now, what qualification will you actually leave school with?” Responses were consistent with those for idealistic aspirations, and we categorized the given answers in the same way.

We assessed students’ school performance by their grade point average (GPA) in German and mathematics because both subjects’ grades are crucial for the transition to upper secondary schooling and, thus, for continuing schooling (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2018).⁵ Owing to the GPA's relevance and the continuous performance feedback from schools in the form of grades, we expect students to be more aware of their grades than of other performance measures, such as their achievement in standardized NEPS performance tests. Moreover, numerous studies indicate that grades appear to be better predictors of future academic success than performance test results (Brookhart et al. 2016, 834). Students’ grades in German and mathematics were measured by asking students about their grades on their most recent school report card. In Germany's lower secondary school system, assessing performance by a six-level grading system from one (very good) to six (unsatisfactory) is common (Tjaden and Hunkler 2017, 220). We recoded the range from six to one to comply with international grading systems and averaged both grades. Consequently, a higher GPA indicates better achievement.

We operationalized students’ immigrant backgrounds, using information about the birth countries of students and their parents and grandparents. We use the categorization proposed by Olczyk, Will, and Kristen (2014), which is available in the NEPS data: “Germany” as the origin country (i.e., “no immigrant background”) is assigned if the students and their parents were born in Germany and a maximum of one grandparent was born abroad. The origin-country of students with immigrant backgrounds is assigned on the basis of their own birth country (if they were born abroad), their parents’ birth country (if they were born in Germany but at least one parent was born abroad), or their grandparents’ birth country (in the case of the third generation).⁶ Countries with small sample sizes were grouped into broader region groups or assigned to the category “Other”. In cases of different birth countries for parents (or grandparents), the category “Other” was used. Table 1 lists the origin-country groups examined in this article.

Control variables included parents’ educational background, students’ gender, and school track. We measured parents’ educational background by the highest parental educational degree in each family and differentiated between “minimum Abitur” and “less than Abitur”. The measure for students’ gender included two categories: male and female. The school track was assessed by differentiating between the purely academic and most prestigious track, the “Gymnasium,” and all other tracks.

Plan of Analysis

Owing to nonresponse and panel attrition, the sample contained up to 31.88 percent of missing values for the different variables (for an overview of the missing values, see Supplemental Appendix, Table A3). To avoid systematic biases, we imputed missing values with chained equations (van Buuren 2007). We accounted for the longitudinal data structure (time points nested in students) by imputing in the wide format, using predictors of other measurement points to impute a variable with missing values at a particular measurement point (Allison 2001). Auxiliary variables were chosen by their presumed association with the missing values on our variables of interest because tests indicated that missingness was not completely random (Rose and Fraser 2008). We imputed a total of 100 complete datasets (White, Royston, and Wood 2011). For the analysis, these datasets were combined, using Rubin's rules (Rubin 1976) (for additional information on imputation, see the Supplemental Appendix).

Our analysis, first, used random-effects logit models (Wooldridge 2010, 291) to address the longitudinal associations between students’ school performance and their likelihood of holding high idealistic and realistic aspirations. We modeled the hypothesized association between students’ school performance and their idealistic and realistic aspirations (H1) by adding an interaction term between time, time squared, and GPA. Second, we explored whether the change in the association between school performance and aspirations over time was similar among students with and without immigrant backgrounds (H2), interacting time, time squared, and GPA with immigrant backgrounds. Finally, this last model was used to depict the longitudinal development of idealistic and realistic aspirations of students with and without immigrant backgrounds, controlling for school track and school performance (H3). We performed all analyses with clustered standard errors at the individual level.

Results

Descriptive Results

Students with idealistic aspirations to obtain the Abitur predominate in the sample (∼70 percent) (Table 1). Their proportion only slightly changes over the individual measurement times.⁷ The proportion of students with realistic aspirations to obtain the Abitur shows a U-shaped pattern. Here, the proportion of students who expected the Abitur as a school-leaving certificate dropped from 57 percent (t1, Grade 5) to 50 percent (t3, Grade 7) and, then, moderately increased until Grade 9 (t5).⁸ The GPA continuously fell by half a grade throughout lower secondary schooling. For a differentiated breakdown of the trends in idealistic and realistic aspirations by origin group/region, see Table 2.

Table 2.

Educational Aspirations by Panel Wave and Immigrant Backgrounds.

		Measurement time (panel waves)
		t1		t2		t3		t4		t5
Variables	Range	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.	M/%	S.D.
Overall
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.70		0.71		0.72		0.71		0.69
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.57		0.53		0.50		0.53		0.54
Germany
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.69		0.71		0.72		0.70		0.69
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.56		0.54		0.51		0.54		0.56
Turkey
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.71		0.70		0.72		0.76		0.66
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.59		0.46		0.44		0.44		0.47
Former USSR
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.61		0.65		0.66		0.67		0.61
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.51		0.44		0.40		0.39		0.39
Poland
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.74		0.72		0.76		0.78		0.73
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.60		0.52		0.54		0.58		0.57
Former SFRY
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.70		0.66		0.65		0.67		0.65
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.56		0.50		0.44		0.53		0.49
Southern EU
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.71		0.74		0.70		0.72		0.73
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.56		0.53		0.47		0.49		0.56
NoWe EU
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.80		0.82		0.79		0.80		0.80
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.66		0.58		0.59		0.64		0.59
Others
Idealistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.74		0.73		0.74		0.73		0.71
Realistic educational aspirations	0–1	0.61		0.54		0.51		0.55		0.55
Observations		5,542		5,542		5,542		5,542		5,542

Source: National Educational Panel Study (NEPS).

Note: These descriptive statistics are based on an N of 5,542 cases of the imputed dataset.

Abbreviations: M/% = arithmetic mean or percentage; S.D. = standard deviation; t = time, USSR = Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; SFRY = Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; NoWe = Northern and Western; EU = Europe.

Results from Multivariate Analyses

Our first hypothesis (H1) addresses the association between students’ school performance and their aspirations, which is expected to be constant and weak for idealistic aspirations but positive and increasing over time for realistic aspirations. Based on a model that includes an interaction term between time, time squared, and GPA (see Table A1 in the Supplemental Appendix), Figure 2 presents the average marginal effects (AME) of GPA over time. H1 related to students’ idealistic aspirations can clearly be rejected: contrary to our expectations, a substantial positive association between students’ school performance and their idealistic aspirations exists and even increased between Grades 5 and 9.⁹ However, H1 is supported for students’ realistic aspirations: a positive association between students’ school performance and their realistic aspirations exists and increased in the course of secondary schooling, although this increase was not linear but occurred between Grades 5 and 7.¹⁰

Figure 2.

Average marginal effects (AME) of grade point average (GPA) during lower secondary schooling (Grades 5–9) on idealistic and realistic aspirations. Estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Source: National Educational Panel Study. Notes. See Supplementary Appendix (SA), Table SA2, Model 1 and 2, for all model parameters.

The second hypothesis (H2) concerns whether the development of the association between students’ school performance and their aspirations differs by immigrant background. To investigate this hypothesis, we included an interaction between time, time squared, GPA, and immigrant background (see Figure 3 and Table A2). The positive association between GPA and idealistic aspirations is evident among all groups and, as an overall pattern, tended to increase over time (exception: former Yugoslavia (F. SFRY)). The pattern is similar to students’ realistic aspirations. The increase in GPA's importance is not linear in most cases. Moreover, note that the confidence intervals are rather large, especially at the first and last measurement points, for some smaller groups. In accordance with H2, the increase in GPA's importance for students’ realistic aspirations tended to be stronger for students from most migrant groups, compared with students without immigrant backgrounds. However, few of the corresponding tests for equality of the marginal effects (Long and Freese 2014) were statistically significant.¹¹

Figure 3.

Average marginal effects (AME) of grade point average (GPA) by country/region of origin during lower secondary schooling (Grades 5–9) on idealistic and realistic aspirations. Estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Abbreviations: USSR = Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; SFRY = Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; South = Southern; EU = Europe; NoWe = Northern and Western. Source: National Educational Panel Study. Notes: See Supplementary Appendix (SA), Table SA3, Model 1 and 2, for all model parameters.

Finally, the aspiration trajectories for students with and without immigrant backgrounds (fixed at a medium level of school performance) are depicted in Figure 4 (based on the same model from Table A2) to examine how the differences between the groups developed over time (H3). Many migrant groups (Turkey, former Yugoslavia, Northern and Western Europe, and others) exhibited significantly higher idealistic aspirations than students without immigrant backgrounds in Grade 5, and this difference remained stable over time (exception: former Yugoslavia) (left panel in Figure 4(a) and (b)), supporting H3 for idealistic aspirations for these groups. Many migrant groups (Turkey, former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), former Yugoslavia, and others) also showed significantly higher realistic aspirations than students without immigrant backgrounds in Grade 5 (right panel in Figure 4(a) and (b)). In accordance with H3, this difference tended to decline between Grades 5 and 7 and, then, remained stable in most cases. This decrease was, however, only significant for the Turkish group. Note that students from most groups showed a somewhat U-shaped trajectory of realistic aspirations (already visible in the descriptives in Table 1). Only Turkish-origin students still exhibited significantly higher realistic aspirations compared to students without immigrant backgrounds in Grade 9. Differences between migrant groups are also apparent: in line with the literature on immigrant aspirations (Acar 2018; Salikutluk 2016), we find that Turkish-origin students had the highest idealistic and realistic aspirations which were maintained throughout secondary schooling, whereas other migrant groups (Poland, Southern Europe, and former USSR) had very similar trajectories compared with students without immigrant backgrounds.

Figure 4.

(a) and (b) Differences in the development of students' idealistic and realistic aspirations by country/region of origin and grade point average (GPA), fixed at a medium level of school performance during lower secondary schooling (Grades 5–9). Estimates from random effects logit models. Abbreviations: USSR = Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; SFRY = Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; South = Southern; EU = Europe; NoWe = Northern and Western.Source: National Educational Panel Study. Notes: See Supplementary, Table SA3, Model 1 and 2, for all model parameters.

Robustness Checks

We performed additional analyses to check our results’ robustness, including more nuanced analyses by considering the following aspects: differentiation by the type of school track attended, immigrant generation, non-linear trajectory of aspirations, inclusion of cognitive abilities, clustering by the school, centering of GPA by school track, and differences by gender. A detailed description of these analyses can be found in the Supplemental Appendix.

Summary and Discussion

This article examined how idealistic and realistic educational aspirations from Grade 5 to Grade 9 in Germany developed for students from various migrant groups, compared with students without immigrant backgrounds. We particularly focused on the adjustment of aspirations to school performance. These analyses represent a new contribution to the migration literature, as the longitudinal development of idealistic and realistic aspirations has not been investigated yet, although different trajectories can be theoretically expected for these two types of aspirations. Our analysis pointed to different trajectories for idealistic and realistic aspirations, albeit not always in an expected manner. Particularly for students’ idealistic educational aspirations, this article yields novel findings. Our results reveal a positive association between students’ GPA and their idealistic aspirations; this association intensified throughout Grades 5–9 for most groups. This finding contradicts the assumption that idealistic educational aspirations are independent of constraining factors such as school performance (Stocké 2013). More noteworthy, however, is the finding that group differences in idealistic aspirations remained stable over time (as expected) despite the unexpected and increasing association between school performance and idealistic aspirations. Thus, differences in idealistic aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds at the same school track and the same performance level that existed at the beginning of Grade 5 persisted until Grade 9.

Although numerous studies have investigated students’ realistic aspirations (Alexander, Bozick, and Entwisle 2008; Andrew and Hauser 2011; Kao and Tienda 1998; Mello 2009), this article reveals novel findings here as well. As expected, we found that students’ school performance became increasingly relevant to their realistic aspirations over time (Guo et al. 2015). However, this increase was not linear and mainly occurred between Grades 5 and 7 for almost all migrant groups. In line with our expectations, school performance's relevance tended to more strongly increase for students with immigrant backgrounds between Grade 5 and Grade 7. Thus, as an overall pattern, we found that existing baseline differences in realistic aspirations between students with and without immigrant backgrounds (at given levels of school performance) decreased until Grade 7 and, then, remained constant at a lower level. However, only the difference in realistic aspirations between students of Turkish origin and students without immigrant backgrounds remained statistically significant until Grade 9.

This finding of narrowing but persisting differences in realistic aspirations between students of Turkish origin and students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level is remarkable in the German context, where highly stratified and selective education systems offer very little room for maintaining an “aspirations–achievement paradox” in the long run. Early, achievement-based allocation to different school tracks not only imparts a “strong dose of realism” into students’ aspirations, as Buchmann and Park (2009, 246) suggest, but also makes students’ aspirations more susceptible to changes in their school performance. Thus, it is striking that Turkish-origin students maintained not only higher idealistic aspirations but also higher realistic aspirations (albeit at a lower level), compared with students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level, until Grade 9 in Germany. This latter finding should be even more pronounced in non-differentiated education systems. However, it should also be noted that the aspiration trajectories of several other migrant groups (Poland, Southern Europe, and former USSR) did not differ (much) from those of the majority population.

Besides these main results, two other findings are noteworthy: the somewhat U-shaped trajectories of realistic aspirations and the differences between migrant groups. The U-shaped progression of realistic aspirations over time could be attributable to, for example, methodological issues owing to a change of school tracks, the repetition of a grade, or dropouts. However, our robustness checks do not support these objections (see the Supplemental Appendix). A more obvious explanation seems to be that track placement itself, especially in combination with academic feedback in the form of grades, might impart “a strong dose of realism” into students’ realistic aspirations, as expected by Buchmann and Park (2009). Such downward adaptation of realistic aspirations especially occurred in groups with very high initial aspiration levels (e.g., Turkish-origin students). One reasonable explanation, although we could not directly investigate it, is that students received more information about the criteria for school continuation, the closer this educational transition approached in time. When students realized that they could transfer to an academically more demanding school that offered further qualifications, even with an average GPA, they accordingly adjusted their educational aspirations upward.

Existing differences in idealistic and realistic aspirations across migrant groups can be attributed to historical and social conditions (Acar 2018, 33): In particular, descendants of the classic labor migrants of the 1960s and 1970s recruited from Turkey and the former Yugoslavia possessed high educational aspirations. Some authors explain Turkish immigrants’ ambitious educational aspirations through two intertwined arguments (Becker and Gresch 2016; Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012). First, immigrant families perceive the structural conditions for social mobility in Germany as more favorable than those in Turkey (Becker and Gresch 2016). Second, Turkish families are less familiar with schooling in Germany (Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012). These intertwined arguments can be interpreted as Turkish immigrants’ optimism, coupled with their “light-hearted” attitude toward schooling (Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012, 116–17; Zielonka et al. 2013, 144–46).

Immigrants from the former USSR constitute the second-largest immigrant group in Germany (Salikutluk 2016, 582). Although most immigrants who migrated to Germany from the former USSR in the 1990s have German heritage, disparities in language skills exist between their children and those of families without immigrant backgrounds (Olczyk et al. 2016, 56). Moreover, studies on the relative educational attainment of immigrants from the former USSR offer little evidence that this group is positively selected (Spörlein et al. 2020). Migrant groups from countries in Southern Europe, Poland, and Northern and Western Europe are in a different situation. In particular, those from Poland and Northern and Western Europe are positively selected in terms of their relative educational attainment (Acar 2018). Moreover, interethnic family constellations are more common in these groups than in other migrant groups, which may indicate a higher degree of adaptation to the host country: for example, children of immigrants from Northern and Western Europe show no language disparities at school (Olczyk et al. 2016). These factors could explain the tendency of students from Northern and Western Europe to have higher idealistic aspirations than students without immigrant backgrounds.

Limitations

Although NEPS provides an excellent database that includes annual measurements of the central variables analyzed here, the results obtained have limitations. First, although GPA captures, from a rational choice perspective, the most important time-varying variable, other time-varying influences, such as changing social influence processes, may exist that we were unable to adequately consider, owing to data limitations. Second, our further analyses indicate that the average trajectories shown here vary according to the types of the school attended (see Supplemental Appendix Figures A1.1 and A1.2). Owing to the limited number of cases, analyzing aspiration trajectories differentiated by origin country/region and school type is impossible. Even the rough differentiation between Gymnasium and other school types chosen for the robustness checks reaches its limits regarding the number of cases. However, note that our main results seem to be mainly driven by the other school tracks, whereas aspirations were generally high at the Gymnasium.

Third, although NEPS allows for a very fine-grained analysis of different migrant groups, we may have concealed group-specific development and adaptation processes by combining different groups according to the origin region, as in the case of students with immigrant backgrounds from the former Yugoslavia. Moreover, we tried to capture students’ origin region/country as differentiated as possible. However, owing to the limited number of cases in these groups, additionally considering “generation” as a distinct criterion was not possible. Fourth, the assumption of a unidirectional relationship between school performance and educational aspirations is not uncontroversial in the literature on aspirations (Gorard, See, and Davies 2012). If a bidirectional relationship exists, we can expect an overestimated association between school performance and educational aspirations. To date, however, no studies have proved a causal link between educational aspirations and students’ school performance (Gorard, See, and Davies 2012).

Fifth, we only consider GPA in mathematics and German over time. Although these grades are central to academic success (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung 2018), students can compensate, at least partially, for weak performance in these two subjects with grades in other subjects. However, we cannot consider these compensation mechanisms and their potential influence on aspirations, owing to data limitations. Sixth, we interpret the U-shaped pattern of realistic aspirations with the underlying information deficits. Because we do not directly test this assumption, we cannot rule out other explanations for this pattern, such as the alternative frame of reference, possibly in combination with information deficits. Seventh, both dependent variables have a high number of missing values (see Table A3 in the Supplemental Appendix). To achieve a precise estimation, we exploit, in our imputation model, the previously observed values of these variables and consider different mechanisms for the occurrence of missing data based on observed data.

Eighth, although the literature on aspirations often assumes that idealistic educational aspirations are independent of the factors hindering their realization (Stocké 2013), we show a correlation between idealistic educational aspirations and academic achievement. Besides conceptual limitations, the measurement of idealistic aspirations as such could contribute to this finding. However, a more profound investigation of these alternative explanations is beyond this article's scope. Finally, the specifics of the German education system and the groups that migrated to Germany limit our results’ comparability. However, the maintenance of high aspirations in a highly stratified education system such as Germany's demonstrates the robustness of our findings of high educational aspirations among some migrant groups.

Implications

Differentiating between idealistic and realistic aspirations has proven to be useful, as the trajectories of these two types of aspirations were quite distinct. However, contrary to our theoretical expectations, both realistic and idealistic aspirations showed a positive association with students’ school performance. This latter finding demonstrates that idealistic aspirations, as measured by the NEPS and in other studies (Acar 2018; Bohon, Johnson, and Gorman 2006; Gutman and Schoon 2018), are not independent of constraining factors. Thus, theoretically, we suggest that idealistic and realistic aspirations are better conceptualized as the endpoints of a continuum (Gottfredson 2002) than as two independent constructs. Such a conceptualization also implies that both types of aspirations are determined by the same predictors, albeit to a different extent (Bohon, Johnson, and Gorman 2006). The finding of a positive association between school performance and aspirations (even idealistic ones) highlights the importance of the probability of success in the development of aspirations, which is in line with rational choice theory (Becker and Gresch 2016). Our results suggest that this factor might increase in importance throughout secondary schooling, thus stressing the relevance of a longitudinal perspective. Finally, the maintenance of high aspirations among some migrant groups, as a robust finding, underlies the need for further research on the reasons for this phenomenon. Although research on aspirations in immigrant families has made advancements in this regard (Acar 2018; Gil-Hernández and Gracia 2018; Hadjar and Scharf 2019; Relikowski, Yilmaz, and Blossfeld 2012; Salikutluk 2013, 2016), there is still no definite answer as to why some migrant groups maintain such high aspirations.

From an educational and practical perspective, our finding of the maintenance of high idealistic aspirations among many migrant groups speaks against a general “cooling out” process of immigrant students’ aspirations—if at all, a cooling out only happens with their realistic aspirations to a modest extent. Thus, we can conclude that achievement motivation is not lacking among students with immigrant backgrounds (Bohon, Johnson, and Gorman 2006). As already stressed, this finding is even more remarkable in a highly stratified education system such as Germany's. The maintenance of high aspirations until the end of compulsory schooling is very consequential, as these aspirations are important for the decision as to whether students with immigrant backgrounds continue further education (Dollmann 2021). Therefore, some migrant groups’ higher aspirations might help mitigate their educational disadvantages in Germany.

However, there is an ongoing debate on whether the aspirations of (some groups of) students are actually “too high” (for the United States: Baird, Burge, and Reynolds 2008; Domina, Conley, and Farkas 2011). Regarding immigrant families, it is argued that whereas immigrant parents are often positively selected on education, many groups still have, on average, lower absolute education levels than the majority population (Acar 2018). Thus, students with immigrant backgrounds may have high educational aspirations but lack the parental support needed to fulfill these aspirations, resulting in an “aspiration squeeze” (Engzell 2018, 83). Other authors argue that high aspirations among students with immigrant backgrounds may constitute an “optimism trap,” as such aspirations divert these students from viable vocational alternatives (Tjaden and Hunkler 2017). For Germany, recent studies show that students with immigrant backgrounds can benefit from their high aspirations and ambitious educational choices after lower secondary education (Dollmann and Weißmann 2020). However, these positive choices do not reduce the difference in the attainment of upper secondary degrees between students with and without immigrant backgrounds because the former have higher dropout rates on the academic track (Dollmann and Weißmann 2020). The consequences of high aspirations among students with immigrant backgrounds are, therefore, a topic of ongoing debate.

Regarding policy recommendations, we agree with the advice that students with immigrant backgrounds should not be discouraged from aiming high but, rather, that educational policies should support them in realizing their aspirations, for example, through support programs that begin as early as preschool (Dollmann and Weißmann 2020) and concentrate on improving school performance (Picot and Hou 2013).

Future Directions

Although NEPS data allowed us to conduct a highly differentiated analysis of groups based on their origin country, future research should further differentiate among the various groups, examine group-specific trajectories by directly measuring competing theoretical explanations, and explore the conception and measurement of idealistic aspirations. Another worthwhile avenue would be to investigate whether the longitudinal trajectories of students’ educational aspirations differ across education systems to gain more insights into the contextuality of this process. If possible, studies should also consider a longer-term developmental perspective on realistic and idealistic educational aspirations and their successful realization. If the realization of educational aspirations into educational attainment is less likely for students with immigrant backgrounds than for students without immigrant backgrounds, questions arise as to why students with immigrant backgrounds are hindered in achieving their goals and which educational measures can be employed to ensure successful realization of educational aspirations and reduce such inequalities in educational attainment.

Supplemental Material

sj-pdf-2-mrx-10.1177_01979183221112404 - Supplemental material for Are They Still Aiming High? The Development of Educational Aspirations of Lower Secondary School Students With Immigrant Backgrounds in Germany

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-2-mrx-10.1177_01979183221112404 for Are They Still Aiming High? The Development of Educational Aspirations of Lower Secondary School Students With Immigrant Backgrounds in Germany by Birgit Becker, Cornelia Gresch, and Thomas Zimmermann in International Migration Review

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iDs

Birgit Becker

Thomas Zimmermann

Supplemental Material

Supplemental material for this article is available online.

Notes

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