The transition from diesel to zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) is a critical decision for industry stakeholders, shaped by uncertainty, technological competition, and irreversible investments. This research examines how fleet operators navigate the choice between fuel cell hydrogen (FCH) and battery electric (BE) HDV, considering market dynamics, policy incentives, and infrastructure development. Using a real options framework, we capture the value of waiting for new information before committing to decarbonization, while integrating innovation diffusion models to account for adoption patterns. We determine when a fleet should switch to FCH HDV and how many vehicles to adopt at the trigger. Our approach provides insights into optimal investment timing, policy effectiveness, and the factors driving the large-scale deployment of clean HDV.
JEL Classification: Q42, Alternative Energy Sources; Q48, Energy: Government Policy; R40, Transportation Economics: General; C15, Statistical Simulation Methods: General; D81, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
AbadieL. M.ChamorroJ. M.2023. “Investment in Wind-Based Hydrogen Production under Economic and Physical Uncertainties.”Applied Energy337: 120881.
2.
AhangM.del GranadoP. C.TomasgardA.2025. “Investments in Green Hydrogen as a Flexibility Source for the European Power System by 2050: Does It Pay Off?”Applied Energy378: 124656.
3.
BasmaH.RodriguezF.2023. “A Total Cost of Ownership Comparison of Truck Decarbonization Pathways in Europe.” Working Paper, International Council on Clean Transportation.
4.
BassF. M.1969. “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables.”Management Science15: 215–27.
5.
BassF. M.KrishnanT. V.JainD. C.1994. “Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables.”Management Science13: 119–30.
6.
BhardwajS.MostofiH.2022. “Technical and Business Aspects of Battery Electric Trucks—A Systematic Review.”Future Transportation2 (2): 382–401.
7.
BiabaniH.AminlouA.HayatiM. M.Majidi-GharehnazH.AbapourM.2024. “Green Hydrogen Research and Development Projects in the European Union.” In Green Hydrogen in Power Systems, Green Energy and Technology, edited by VahidinasabV.Mohammadi-IvatlooB.Shiun LimJ.Springer.
8.
BigginsF.KatariaM.RobertsD.BrownD. S.2022. “Green Hydrogen Investments: Investigating the Option to Wait.”Energy241: 122842.
9.
BotterudA.YildizB.ConzelmannG.PetriM. C.2008. “Nuclear Hydrogen: An Assessment of Product Flexibility and Market Viability.”Energy Policy36 (10): 3961–73.
10.
Carbone 4. 2022. “Camion éléctrique: il est temps d’embrayer sur la logistique urbaine.” Report, Carbone 4.
11.
Carbone 4. 2025. “Quelles technologies pour les poids lourds longue distance de demain ?” Report, Carbone 4.
12.
ChassangY.LopesA.SaussayA., et al. 2025. “Joint Statement on Decarbonising Freight Transport.”Conseil d’Analyse Economique and German Council of Economic Experts.
13.
ChenX.PangZ.JiangS., et al. 2023. “A Novel LH2/GH2 Battery Multi-Energy Vehicle Supply Station Using 100 Environmental Perspectives.”Energy270: 126871.
14.
ChoiW.KangS.2023. “Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Economic Cost of Technologies Using Green Hydrogen in the Steel Industry.”Journal of Environmental Management335: 117569.
15.
CITEPA. 2020. “Analyse des émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de polluants atmosphériques.” Rapport Secten, CITEPA.
16.
CretiA.KotelnikovaA.MeunierG.PonssardJ. P.2018. “Defining the Abatement Cost in Presence of Learning-by-Doing: Application to the Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle.”Environmental and Resource Economics71: 777–800.
17.
CurcioE.2025. “Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production: Costs, Policies, and Scalability in the Transition to Net-Zero.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy128: 473–87.
DixitA. K.PindyckR. S.1994. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
20.
Durand-LasserveO.2025. “Net Zero Emissions in Saudi Arabia by 2060: Least-Cost Pathways, Influence of International Oil Price, and Economic Consequences.”The Energy Journal46 (5): 57–84.
21.
ECTA. 2021. “Position Paper of the European Clean Trucking Alliance on the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure (AFIR) Proposal.”European Clean Trucking Alliance.
22.
El HannachM.AhmadiP.GuzmanL.PickupS.KjeangE.2019. “Life Cycle Assessment of Hydrogen and Diesel Dual-Fuel Class 8 Heavy Duty Trucks.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy44 (16): 8575–84.
23.
El-EmamR. S.ÖzcanH.2019. “Comprehensive Review on the Techno-Economics of Sustainable Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen Production.”Journal of Cleaner Production220: 593–609.
24.
EngelenP. J.KoolC.LiY.2016. “A Barrier Options Approach to Modeling Project Failure: The Case of Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure.”Resource and Energy Economics43: 33–56.
25.
European Commission. 2024. “Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation.”Directive and Package, EC.
26.
European Hydrogen Observatory. 2025. “Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) Calculator Manual.”European Hydrogen Observatory.
FabianekP.GlenskB.MadlenerR.2024. “A Sequential Real Options Analysis for Renewable Power-to-Hydrogen Plants for Germany and California.”Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews192: 114159.
29.
FragiacomoP.GenoveseM.PirainoF.MassariF.BoroomandniaM.2024. “Analysis of a Distributed Green Hydrogen Infrastructure Designed to Support the Sustainable Mobility of a Heavy-Duty Fleet.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy51: 576–94.
FruchterG.Van den BulteC.2011. “Why the Generalized Bass Model Leads to Odd Optimal Advertising Policies, Intern.”Journal of Research in Marketing28: 218–30.
32.
GanterA.GabrielliP.SansaviniG.2024. “Near-Term Infrastructure Rollout and Investment Strategies for Net-Zero Hydrogen Supply Chains.”Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews194: 114314.
33.
GentilucciG.AccardoA.SpessaE.2025. “Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Diesel Oil and Zero-Emission Trucks: Systematic Review of Status and Perspectives.”Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives32: 101563.
34.
GilmoreJ.NelsonT.NolanT.2023. “Firming Technologies to Reach 100% Renewable Energy Production in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM).”The Energy Journal44 (6): 189–210.
GlenkG.ReichelsteinS.2019. “Economics of Converting Renewable Power to Hydrogen.”Nature Energy4 (3): 216–22.
37.
GünaydınÖ. F.TopçuS.AksoyA.2025. “Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles: Overview and Current Status of Hydrogen Mobility.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy142: 918–36.
38.
HarichandanS.KarS. K.2023. “An Empirical Study on Consumer Attitude and Perception towards Adoption of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles in India: Policy Implications for Stakeholders.”Energy Policy178: 113587.
39.
HeselP.BraunS.ZimmermannF.FichtnerW.2022. “Integrated Modelling of European Electricity and Hydrogen Markets.”Applied Energy328: 120162.
40.
HRS. 2025. “Hydrogen for Heavy Goods Vehicles.”Hydrogen Refueling Solutions, HRS French Refueling Station Manufacturer.
Interact Analysis. 2023. “In 2030, over 45000 Heavy Trucks Will Run on Hydrogen in Europe.”Commercial Vehicles, Interact Analysis.
44.
IntiniA.Oliveira-CardosoS.Bastian-PintoC.PellegrinoR.2024. “Flexible Use of Green Hydrogen: An Application of the Option to Switch between Hydrogen and Ammonia in Brazil’s Renewable Energy.” Annual International Real Options Conference 2023, Working Paper.
45.
JensenA. F.MabitS. L.2017. “The Use of Electric Vehicles: A Case Study on Adding an Electric Car to a Household.”Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice106: 89–99.
46.
JiangY.DengZ.YouS.2019. “Size Optimization and Economic Analysis of a Coupled Wind-Hydrogen System with Curtailment Decisions.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy44 (36): 19658–66.
47.
KhanM. H. A.DaiyanR.HanZ., et al. 2021. “Designing Optimal Integrated Electricity Supply Configurations for Renewable Hydrogen Generation in Australia.”iScience24 (6): 102539.
48.
KockelC.KulawikJ.WohllebenD.PraktiknjoA.2024. “Which Way to Choose? A Generic Modular Life Cycle Assessment for Hydrogen Production and Import Pathways to Germany.”The Energy Journal45 (1_suppl): 215–39.
49.
KronigerD.MadlenerR.2014. “Hydrogen Storage for Wind Parks: A Real Options Evaluation for an Optimal Investment in More Flexibility.”Applied Energy136: 931–46.
50.
LiX.MulderM.2021. “Value of Power-to-Gas as a Flexibility Option in Integrated Electricity and Hydrogen Markets.”Applied Energy304: 117863.
51.
LiY.CuiF.LiL.2018. “An Integrated Optimization Model for the Location of Hydrogen Refueling Stations.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy43 (42): 19636–49.
52.
LiY.KoolC.EngelenP.-J.2020. “Analyzing the Business Case for Hydrogen-Fuel Infrastructure Investments with Endogenous Demand in The Netherlands: A Real Options Approach.”Sustainability12 (13): 5424.
53.
LynchM.DevineM. T.BertschV.2019. “The Role of Power-to-Gas in the Future Energy System: Market and Portfolio Effects.”Energy185: 1197–209.
MassianiJ.GohsA.2015. “The Choice of Bass Model Coefficients to Forecast Diffusion for Innovative Products: An Empirical Investigation for New Automotive Technologies.”Research in Transportation Economics50: 17–28.
56.
MelainaM.PenevM.2013. “Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with Other Recent Estimates.” NREL/TP–5400-56412, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
57.
MoonS.KimK.SeungH.KimJ.2022. “Strategic Analysis on Effects of Technologies, Government Policies, and Consumer Perceptions on Diffusion of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles.”Energy Economics115: 106382.
58.
MTES (Ministére de la Transition Ecologique et Solidaire). 2020. “Stratégie nationale pour le développement de l’hydrogéne d’carboné en France”, Dossier de Presse.
59.
NollB.del ValS.SchmidtT.SteffenB.2022. “Analyzing the Competitiveness of Low-Carbon Drive-Technologies in Road-Freight: A Total Cost of Ownership Analysis in Europe.”Applied Energy306: 118079.
60.
NykvistB.OlssonO.2021. “The Feasibility of Heavy Battery Electric Trucks.”Joule5 (4): 901–913.
61.
OECD. 2022. “Green Hydrogen Opportunities for Emerging and Developing Economies: Identifying Success Factors for Market Development and Building Enabling Conditions.” OECD Environment Working Papers No. 205. Paris: OECD Publishing.
62.
OvalleT.SaumabE.ReyesaT.WolakcF.2023. “Hydrogen Production Economics: A Compound Real Options and Policy Analysis.” Working paper, Standford University.
63.
ParkS. Y.KimJ. W.LeeD. H.2011. “Development of a Market Penetration Forecasting Model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Considering Infrastructure and Cost Reduction Effects.”Energy Policy39 (6): 3307–315.
64.
PomaskaL.AcciaroM.2022. “Bridging the Maritime-Hydrogen Cost-Gap: Real Options Analysis of Policy Alternatives.”Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment107: 103283.
65.
RaoofiZ.MahmoudiM.PernestålA.2025. “Electric Truck Adoption and Charging Development: Policy Insights from a Dynamic Model.”Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment139: 104515.
66.
RawatA.GargC. P.SinhaP.2024. “Analysis of the Key Hydrogen Fuel Vehicles Adoption Barriers to Reduce Carbon Emissions under Net Zero Target in Emerging Market.”Energy Policy184: 113847.
67.
RomanG.ZadekH.2024. “Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Trucks in Logistics: A Systematic Review and Analysis of Relevant Adoption Parameters.” In Latest Advancements in Mechanical Engineering, edited by ConcliF.MaccioniL.VidoniR.MattD. T.Springer.
68.
RoutC.LiH.DupontV.WadudZ.2022. “A Comparative Total Cost of Ownership Analysis of Heavy Duty On-Road and Off-Road Vehicles Powered by Hydrogen, Electricity, and Diesel.”Heliyon8 (12): e12417.
69.
RozziE.GiglioE.MoscoloniC.NovoR.MattiazzoG.LanziniA.2024. “Comparative Study of Electric and Hydrogen Mobility Infrastructures for Sustainable Public Transport: A PyPSA Optimization for a Remote Island Context.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy80: 516–27.
70.
RufY.BaumM.ZornT.MenzelA.RehbergeJ.2020. “Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Trucks – Heavy-Duty’s High-Performance Green Solution.” Roland Berger Report, European Commission.
71.
Sadik-ZadaE. R.GattoA.ScharfensteinM.2023. “Sustainable Management of Lithium and Green Hydrogen and Long-Run Perspectives of Electromobility.”Technological Forecasting and Social Change186: 121992.
72.
SgaramellaA.PastoreL. M.Lo BassoG.de SantoliL.2025. “A Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Refuelling and Electric Fast-Charging Stations: Effects on Cost-Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks.”Energy331: 137066.
73.
ShomanW.YehS.SpreiF.PlötzP.SpethD.2023. “Battery Electric Long-Haul Trucks in Europe: Public Charging, Energy, and Power Requirements.”Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment121: 103825.
Transport & Environment. 2020. “Unlocking Electric Trucking in the EU: Recharging in Cities.” Report, Transport & Environment.
77.
VaishnavP.TianY.IsaacC.MohanA.2024. “Automation and Electrification in Long-Haul Trucking Cuts Urban Health and Environmental Damages.”Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment131: 104187.
78.
Van BenthemA. A.KramerG. J.RamerR.2006. “An Options Approach to Investment in a Hydrogen Infrastructure.”Energy Policy34 (17): 2949–63.
79.
Van den BoomenM.Van der MeulenS.Van EkrisJ., et al. 2021. “Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis.”Sustainability13 (16): 9153.
80.
VandewalleJ.BruninxK.D’haeseleerW.2015. “Effects of Large-Scale Power to Gas Conversion on the Power, Gas and Carbon Sectors and Their Interactions.”Energy Conversion and Management94: 28–39.
WolfA.2025. “Public Support for the Roll-Out of Renewable Hydrogen in Europe: A Real Options Perspective.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy97: 1440–52.
83.
WuY.LiuF.HeJ.WuM.KeY.2021. “Obstacle Identification, Analysis and Solutions of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles for Application in China under the Carbon Neutrality Target.”Energy Policy159: 112643.
84.
YanJ.ZhaoJ.2022. “Willingness to Pay for Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks and Factors Affecting the Purchase Choices in China.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy47 (58): 24619–34.
85.
ZhaoT.LiuZ.2024. “Investment of Hydrogen Refueling Station Based on Compound Real Options.”International Journal of Hydrogen Energy57: 198–209.
86.
ZhengQ.LvH.ZhouW.ZhangC.2021. “Research on Multi-Period Hydrogen Refueling Station Location Model in Jiading District.”World Electric Vehicle Journal12: 146.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
