This article describes how microsimulation analysis was used to help design a social experiment
currently being conducted in two provinces in Canada. To the authors' knowledge, microsimu lation has never been used before for this purpose, although the technique has been used to assist
development of a couple of nonexperimental demonstration programs. For the Canadian
experiment, the microsimulation analysis was used primarily for choosing among alternative
program models and for refining the selected model, but it had other important uses, such as
helping to project the potential financial liability to the Canadian government. The authors
conclude that microsimulation should be given serious consideration in the design of future
experiments, whenever an appropriate simulation model is available.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Betson, David, David Greenberg, and Richard Kasten.1980. A microsimulation model for analyzing alternative welfare reform proposals: An application to the program for better jobs and income program. In Microeconomic simulation, edited by Robert Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck.New York: Academic Press.
2.
Burtless, Gary.1987. The work response to a guaranteed income: A survey of experimental evidence. In Lessons from the income maintenance experiments, edited by Alice Munnell.Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston .
3.
Citro, Constance F., and Eric A. Hanushek, eds. 1991. Improving information for social policy decisions: The uses of microsimulation modeling. Vol. 1. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
4.
Ehrenberg, Ronald G., and Robert S. Smith .1994. Modern labor economics. 5th ed. New York: HarperCollins.
5.
Garfinkel, Irwin, Philip K. Robins, Pat Wong, and Daniel R. Meyer .1990. The Wisconsin child support assurance system: Estimated effects on poverty, labor supply, caseloads, and costs. Journal of Human Resources25 (1): 1-31.
6.
Graham, John W., and Andrea H. Beller .1989. The effect of child support payments on the labor supply of female family heads: An econometric analysis . Journal of Human Resources24:664-88.
7.
Greenberg, David H., Daniel R. Meyer, Charles Michalopoulos, and Philip K. Robins .1992. "Simulation Estimates of the Net Employment Impacts of Six Employment Subsidy Programs for Long-Term Welfare Recipients in Canada." Final Report submitted to the Canadian Ministry of Employment and Immigration. February.
8.
Greenberg, David H., Charles Michalopoulos, Philip K. Robins, and Robert Wood.1995. Making work pay for welfare recipients . Contemporary Economic Policy13 (3): 39-52.
9.
Greenberg, David H., and Michael Wiseman .1992. What did the OBRA demonstrations do? In Evaluating welfare and training programs, edited by Charles F. Manski and Irwin Garfinkel.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
10.
Gueron, Judith.1990. Work and welfare: Lessons on employment programs . Journal of Economic Perspectives4 (1): 79-98.
11.
Gueron, Judith, and Edward Pauly.1991. From welfare to work. New York: Russell Sage.
12.
Hum, Derek, and Wayne Simpson.1991. Income maintenance, work effort, and the Canadian Mincome experiment. Ottawa: Minister of Supply and Services Canada.
13.
Keeley, Michael C., Philip K. Robins, Robert G. Spiegelman, and Richard W. West .1978. The estimation of labor supply models using experimental data. American Economic Review68 (5): 873-87.
14.
Meyer, Daniel R., Irwin Garfinkel, Donald Oellerich, and Philip K. Robins .1994. Who should be eligible for an assured child support benefit? In Child support and child well being, edited by Irwin Garfinkel , Sara S. McLanahan, and Philip K. Robins.Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.
15.
Meyer, Daniel R., Irwin Garfinkel, Philip K. Robins, and Donald Oellerich .1991. The costs and effects of a national child support assurance system. Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Paper No. 940-91. Madison: University of Wisconsin.
16.
Meyer, Daniel R., Charles Michalopoulos, Philip K. Robins, and David H. Greenberg .1992. "Simulation estimates of the net employment impacts of the Canadian Self-Sufficiency Project: Sensitivity analysis and additional results." Follow-up report submitted to the Canadian Ministry of Employment and Immigration.
17.
Meyer, Daniel R., Elizabeth Phillips, and Nancy L. Maritato .1991. The effect of replacing income tax deductions for children with children's allowances: A microsimulation . Journal of Family Issues12:467-91.
18.
Michalopoulos, Charles, Philip K. Robins, and Irwin Garfinkel .1992. A structural model of labor supply and child care demand. Journal of Human Resources27 (1): 166-203.
19.
Moffitt, Robert.1983An economic model of welfare stigma. American Economic Review73:1023-35.
20.
—. 1992. Evaluation methods for program entry effects. In Evaluating welfare and training programs, edited by Charles F. Manski and Irwin Garfinkel.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
21.
Orcutt, Guy, Steven Caldwell, and Richard Wertheimer .1976. Policy exploration through microanalytic simulation. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.
22.
Social Research Demonstration Corporation (SRDC) in cooperation with Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation (MDRC).1993. Design of the Self-Sufficiency Project. Report prepared for Employment and Immigration Canada. New York: Author.
23.
Wertheimer, Richard, Roberta Barnes, Clara Hager, Richard Michel, Eric Simon, Randell Webb, and Laurie Tobias1980. Review of the data requirements of the major microsimulation models. Working Paper 1388-01. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
