Consideration of statistical techniques to analyze the impact of seat belt use laws on traffic
accidents and consequences suggests that the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method is preferable. This
approach was applied to monthly fatalities, injuries classified by level of severity, and total
accidents in Illinois. The most serious injuries did decline by over 500 per month. The ARIMA
model did not indicate an overall increase in accidents or injuries, in contrast to a simple
before-after comparison. It is estimated conservatively that the seat belt law provides benefits
of $15 million per month in Illinois.
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