This article raises some questions about the relationship between program evaluation and forecasting. Contrasting the two fields in terms of mind-set, purpose, problems, advantages, and use shows that although their modes of inquiry are indeed very different in many ways, there is also interdependence between the two in several areas. It is argued that each can be greatly strengthened by better understanding and use of the other's techniques.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AscherW. (1978) Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policymakers and Planners. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press
BoorstinD. (1974) The Americans: The Democratic Experience. New York: Vintage Books
4.
BuckleyW. F.Jr. (1983) “Mrs. Kirkpatrick, don't leave.”Washington Post (December 23)
5.
ChelimskyE. (1985) “Comparing and contrasting auditing and evaluation: some notes on their relationship.”Evaluation Rev. 94:483–503
6.
de TocquevilleA. (1964) Democracy in America. New York: Washington Square Press
7.
FischhoffB. (1975) “Hindsight = foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.”J. of Experimental Psychology13:288
8.
HoaglinD. C.LightR. J.McPeekB.MostellerF.StotoM. A. (1982) Data for Decisions. Washington, DC: Abt Associates
9.
MakridakisS.AndersenA.CarboneR.FildesR.HibonM.LewandowskiR.NewtonJ.ParzenE.WinklerR. (1984) The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods. New York: John Wiley
10.
NietzscheF. (1966) Beyond Good and Evil (KaufmannWalter, trans.). New York: Random House