The effect of the saccharin warning label on sales of diet soft drinks was modeled with an
autoregressive integrated moving average (A RIMA) process. Retail price trends and
attendant publicity were modeled concurrently to separate these effects from those due to
the warning. Results indicated that the label produced a small yet statistically significant
reduction in sales, with an abrupt onset and, thus far, permanent duration. Reasons for the
absence of decay effects, limitations of interpretability, and ideas for improving future
evaluations of warning labels are discussed.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Axelrod, J.N. (1980) "Advertising wear out" J. of Advertising Research20: 13-18.
2.
Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins (1976) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
3.
---and G.C. Tiao (1975) "Intervention analysis with application to economic and environmental problems." J. of Amer. Statistical Association70: 70-92.
4.
Burke, L., D. Crosby, and D. Lao (1978) Estrogen prescribing in menopause. Drug Use Analysis Branch, Food and Drug Administration, June 23, 1978. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
5.
Craig, C.S., B. Sternthal, and C. Leavitt (1976) "Advertising wearout: an experimental analysis ." J. of Marketing Research13: 365-372.
6.
Gardner, S. (1977) Statement by S. Gardner, Acting Commissioner, FDA. HHS News. March 9, 1977, Washington, D.C.
7.
Glass, G.V., V.L. Willson, and J.M. Gottman (1975) Design and Analysis of Time Series Expenments. Boulder, CO: Associated Univ. Press.
8.
Hibbs, D.A. Jr. (1974) "Problems of statistical estimation and causal influence in time series regression models," in H. L. Costner (ed.) Sociological Methodology 1973-74. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
9.
Ljung, G.M. and G.E.P. Box (1978) "On a measure of lack of fit in time series models ," Biometrika65: 297-303.
10.
Mark, M. (1979) "The causal analysis of concomitancies in time series," in T. D. Cook and D. T. Campbell (eds.) Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Chicago : Rand-McNalley.
11.
McCleary R. and R.A. Hay (1980) Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences . Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
12.
McSWEENY, A. J. (1978) "The effects of response cost on the behavior of a million persons: charging for directory assistance in Cincinnati." J. of Applied Behavioral Analysis11. 47-51.
13.
Pines, W.L. and N. Glick (1977) "The saccharin ban." FDA Consumer11,4: 10-13.
14.
Schucker, R.E., R.C. Stokes, M.L. Stewart, and D.P. Henderson (1983) "Impact of the saccharin warning label on sales diet soft drinks in supermarkets." J. of Public Policy and Marketing2: 46-56.
15.
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1974- 1983) Monthly Labor ReviewWashington, DC : Government Printing Office.
16.
U.S. Federal Trade Commission (1977) Report to Congress pursuant to the Public Health Cigarette Smoking Act. June 30, 1977, Washington, D. C.
17.
U. S. Food and Drug Administration (1983) "Food additives permitted for direct addition to food for human consumption; aspartame." Federal Register48: 31376-31382.
18.
———( 1977) "Saccharin and its salts: tentative guidelines." Federal Register42: 59119-59120.
