The low psychological well-being of the divorced and separated could be due to the hardships of the divorce process, more general problems of unmarried living, or differential selection for divorce. Using combined questionnaire and register data on 39,000 Norwegian men and women, it is shown that psychological well-being is a strong predictor of subsequent marital dissolution over a 2-to 4-year period. The strength of the relationship is particularly strong in the short run, but remains significant throughout the period of observation. The strong short-term relationship is most probably due to hardships associated with the divorce process. The somewhat weaker long-term relationship could be due to selection effects, but the possibility that low well-being many years before the separation may be due to persistent marital problems cannot be ruled out.
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