Abstract
The methodology is first outlined for systems modeling in general, and of global modeling in particular, as developed at the Institute for Systems Studies of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Next, a global model including four individual nations, China, Japan, the United States, and the USSR, and several regions, among them the EEC and OPEC, is used for a scenario study. Special attention is given to the critical role of technology, in particular R&D. The first scenario assumes between five to eight percent growth in R&D for military technology, 1986-2000. The second assumes an annual reduction of World Gross Product in the order of 11 percent annually. The major conclusion is that the reduction is less important than the intellectual conversion process in the R&D sector from military to civilian ends. This contributes to the alleviation of social problems.
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