Modes,Mechanisms,and Turning Points

Abstract

Analysis of the transformation of international systems involves a determination of what type of systems change and how much change is necessary and sufficient to justify calling a change a transformation. The theoretical discussion covers (1) modes, the political sub stance of change; (2) mechanisms, the manner and rate at which change is expressed; (3) endogenous processes including interdependence, dependence, codependence, autarky, and integration; (4) exogenous processes such as the emergence of new actors and the technological development of weaponry; and (5) the identification of historical turning points where changes in the structure of the system have coincided with fundamental changes in the rules of statecraft and of political order. Complementarity and competitive ness are discussed as examples of complex mechanisms of systems transformation. Several types of counterintuitive mechanisms are also examined, including an extension of the Richardson model to incorporate inversion-of-expectation transformation processes. In short, the challenge in theoretical terms lies in the dynamics of systems transformation.