Is it cohesion or diversion? Domestic instability and the use of force in international crises

Abstract

This study asserts that cohesionary — rather than diversionary — motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for 139 countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use of force during international crises. I also find that the impact of mass violence on the external use of force is contingent on ethno-religious heterogeneity and regime type.