The total fertility rate (TFR) is crucial for accessing a country’s demographic health. This study examines changes in India’s TFR from 2005 to 2021 using National Family Health Survey data, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as residence, education, and wealth index. Results show a national decline from 2.68 in 2005–2006 to 1.99 in 2021, an 18.65% decrease, with only a modest reduction of 0.19 children (8.71%) between NFHS-4 and NFHS-5. While southern and western states have reached below-replacement fertility, four large northern states Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh continue to exhibit higher fertility, reflecting uneven demographic transition. Findings indicate that while India has entered a low-fertility regime, regional disparities hinder population stabilization. Without stronger investments in women’s education, reproductive health, and regional equity, the benefits of fertility decline including lower mortality, improved gender equality, and the demographic dividend will however remain uneven. Bridging these gaps is essential for India’s demographic transition to yield inclusive social and economic progress.
AlagarajanM., & KulkarniP. M. (2008). Religious differentials in fertility in India: Is there a convergence?Economic & Political Weekly, 43(48), 44–53.
2.
ArunachalamD., NavaneethamK., & ForrestW. (2017). Political boundary versus social context: Dynamics of socioeconomic differentials in fertility in Indian States. Journal of Biosocial Science, 49(Suppl 1), S156–S171. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932017000554
3.
BongaartsJ. (1987). The proximate determinants of exceptionally high fertility. Population and Development Review, 13(1), 133–139. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1972125
4.
BongaartsJ. (2015). Modeling the fertility impact of the proximate determinants: Time for a tune-up. Demographic Research, 33(1), 535–560. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.19
5.
BongaartsJ., & CottsS. (1996, December). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review, 22(4), 639–682.
6.
ChatterjeeS., & MohantyS. K. (2022). Fertility transition and socioeconomic development in districts of India, 2001-2016. Journal of Biosocial Science, 54(1), 135–153. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932020000735
7.
ChengH., LuoW., SiS., XinX., PengZ., ZhouH., LiuH., & YuY. (2022). Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education. BMC Public Health, 22(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13656-1
8.
ChesnaisJ.-C. (2023). Total fertility rates. The Demographic Transition, 542–554. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198286592.005.0002
9.
Congdon ForsH., & LindskogA. (2023). Son preference and education inequalities in India: The role of gender-biased fertility strategies and preferential treatment of boys. Journal of Population Economics, 36(3), 1431–1460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00941-5
10.
DharmalingamA., RajanS., & MorganS. P. (2014). The determinants of low fertility in India. Demography, 51(4), 1451–1475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0314-9
11.
Esri. (2004). ArcGIS 9. Environmental Systems Research Institute.
12.
FauserB. C. J. M., AdamsonG. D., BoivinJ., ChambersG. M., DyerS., de GeyterC., InhornM. C., SchmidtL., SerourG. I., TarlatzisB., & Zegers-HochschildF. (2024). Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: An IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature. Human Reproduction Update, 30(2), 153–173. https://doi.org/10.1093/humupd/dmad028
13.
GuilmotoC. Z., & Irudaya RajanS. (2001). Spatial patterns of fertility transition in Indian districts. Population and Development Review, 27(4), 713–738. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00713.x
14.
HarttgenK., & VollmerS. (2014). A reversal in the relationship of human development with fertility?Demography, 51(1), 173–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0252-y
15.
HertogS., GerlandP., & WilmothJ. (2023). India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country. Future of the World, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Economic Analysis, United Nations, 153, 1–5. https://newsonair.gov.in/Main-News-Details.aspx?id=440629
16.
JayanthakumaranK., VermaR., WanG., & WilsonE. (2019). Internal migration, urbanization, and poverty in Asia: Dynamics and interrelationships. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9407-3
17.
KohlerH.-P. (2006). The determinants of low fertility in Europe. Entre Nous. The European Magazine for Sexual and Reproductive Health Matters, 63(4), 12–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0314-9
18.
MandalC. (2021). Review of the book Contemporary demographic transformations in China, India and Indonesia edited by C. Z. Guilmoto & G. W. Jones. Asian Population Studies, 17(1), 129–131. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730
19.
MitraA., & MurayamaM. (2009). Rural to urban migration: A district-level analysis for India. International Journal of Migration, Health and Social Care, 5(2), 35–52. https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011
20.
SääväläM. (2010). Below replacement-level fertility in conditions of slow social and economic development: A review of the evidence from South India. Journal of International Development, 22(1), 65–76. https://doi.org/ 10.1177/026272801003100108
21.
SinghA., KumarK., Kumar PathakP., Kumar ChauhanR., BanerjeeA., & VilquinÉ. (2017a). La structure spatiale de la fécondité indienne et ses déterminants. Population, 72(3), 525–550. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1703.0525
22.
SinghA., KumarK., Kumar PathakP., Kumar ChauhanR., BanerjeeA., & VilquinÉ. (2017b). La structure spatiale de la fécondité indienne et ses déterminants. Population, 72(3), 525–550. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1703.0525
23.
SinghS., ShekharC., BankoleA., AcharyaR., AudamS., & AkinadeT. (2022, February). Key drivers of fertility levels and differentials in India, at the national, state and population subgroup levels, 2015-2016: An application of Bongaarts’ proximate determinants model. PLoS ONE, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263532
24.
TiwariA. K., & MishraS. (2021). Fertility pattern in India and estimation of total fertility rate. International Journal of Agricultural and Statistical Sciences, 17(March), 2279–2289.
25.
TóthJ. I. (2018). A new pro-natalist tool: Parenthood as a form of public employment. https://doi.org/10.22618/tp.aebio.20181.192015
