Previous studies used the strain, rational choice, or routine activities approach to explain changes in crime levels after the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed changes have not always been consistent with predictions made by these theoretical approaches. This study uses a social solidarity approach which can be used to better explain observed changes. It is argued that national disasters, such as pandemics, can result in an increase in social solidarity which can have a suppressive effect on crime. Official crime data from Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica are used to explore this hypothesis. The results from auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling show that there was a decline in crime in Trinidad and Tobago but not in Jamaica after COVID-19 restrictions. The study argues that social solidarity may have increased in Trinidad and Tobago, but not in Jamaica, accounting for the observed differences.
AbramsD. S. (2021). COVID and crime: An early empirical look. Journal of Public Economics, 194, 104344. 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104344
2.
AgnewR. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30(1), 47–87.
3.
AshbyM. P. (2020). Initial evidence on the relationship between the coronavirus pandemic and crime in the United States. Crime Science, 9(1), 6. 10.1186/s40163-020-00117-6
4.
BaekH., HanS., & SeepersadR. (2020). Why do people’s complaints still fall on the police?: Confidence in the police in Trinidad and Tobago. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 60, 1–12.
5.
BanduraA. (1977). Self-efficacy theory: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84, 191–225.
6.
Bradbury-JonesC., & IshamL. (2020). The pandemic paradox: The consequences of COVID-19 on domestic violence. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 29, 247–249.
7.
BrezinaT., & KaufmanJ. M. (2008). What really happened in New Orleans?: Estimating the threat of violence during the hurricane Katrina disaster. Justice Quarterly, 25(4), 701–722.
8.
CampedelliG. M.AzianiA., & FavarinS. (2020). Exploring the immediate effects of COVID-19 containment policies on crime: An empirical analysis of the short-term aftermath in Los Angeles. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 704–727. 10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6
9.
CohenL. E., & FelsonM. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588–608.
10.
CromwellP. F., MarksA., OlsonJ. N., & AvaryD. A. (1991). Group effects on decision-making by burglars. Psychological Reports, 69(2), 579–588.
11.
FosterJ. (1995). Informal social control and community crime prevention. The British Journal of Criminology, 35, 4, 563–583.
12.
GerhardsJ., LengfeldH., IgnáczZ., KleyF., & PriemM. (2019). European solidarity in times of crisis: Insights from a thirteen-country survey. Routledge.
13.
GerellM., KardellJ. & KindgrenJ. (2020). Minor Covid-19 association with crime in Sweden. Crime Science, 9(19), 1–9. 10.1186/s40163-020-00128-3
14.
Google Mobility Report. (2021, June15). Covid-19 Google mobility report. Retrieved from https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/a529e043-e2b9-4e6f-86c6-ec99a5d7b9a4/page/yY2MB?s=ho2bve3abdM
15.
HalfordE., DixonA., FarrellG., MallesonN., & TilleyN. (2020). Crime and coronavirus: Social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime. Crime Science, 9(11), 1–12. 10.1186/s40163-020-00121-w
16.
HarriottA., & KatzC. (2015). Gangs in the Caribbean: Their rise and impact on the patterns of crime, state and politics. University of the West Indies Press.
17.
HarriottA., LewisB., & ZechmeisterE. J. (2014). The political culture of democracy in Jamaica and in the Americas, 2014: Democratic governance across 10 years of the Americas Barometer. Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/jamaica/AB2014_Jamaica_Country_Report_V3_W_061115.pdf
18.
HirschiT. (1969). Causes of delinquency. University of California Press.
19.
Hollis-PeelM. E., ReynaldD. M., van BavelM., ElffersH., & WelshB. (2011). Guardianship for crime prevention: A critical review of the literature. Crime, Law and Social Change, 56, 53–70.
20.
LikkiT., & StaerkléC. (2014). A typology of ideological attitudes towards social solidarity and social control. Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology, 24, 406–421.
21.
MateriaE., RossiL., & GuasticchiG. (2005). Income inequality and nations’ altruism. The Lancet, 365, 1462–1463. 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66410-0
22.
MawbyR. (2020). Community safety under lockdown: Early thoughts from isolation. Crime Prevention Community Safety, 22, 305–312.
23.
MeierR. F. (1982). Perspectives on the concept of social control. Annual Review of Sociology, 8, 35–55.
24.
NivetteA. E., ZahnowR., AguilarR., AhvenA., AmramS., ArielB., BurbanoM. J. A., AstolfiR., BaierD., BarkH. M., BeijersJ. E. H., BergmanM., BreetzkeG., Concha-EastmanI. A., Curtis-HamS., DavenportR., DíazC.FleitasD., GerellM., … Ho JangK. (2021). A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature Human Behavior, 5(7), 868–877. 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
25.
PalmaW. (2016). Time series analysis (Wiley series in probability and statistics). Wiley.
26.
PayneJ. L. & MorganA. (2020). Property crime during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic, forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia. Center for Open Science. 10.31235/osf.io/de9nc
27.
PiqueroA. R., RiddellJ. R., BishoppS. A., NarveyC., ReidJ. A. & PiqueroN. L. (2020). Staying home, staying safe? A short-term analysis of COVID-19 on Dallas domestic violence. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 45, 601–635. 10.1007/s12103-020-09531-7
28.
PiqueroA. R., JenningsW., JemisonE., KaukinenC., & KnaulF. (2021). Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 74, 101806. 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2021.101806
29.
PrainsackB., & BuyxA. (2011). Solidarity as an emerging concept in bioethics. Nuffield Council on Bioethics. 10.1515/jfwe.2012.17.1.331
30.
RosenfeldR., & LopezE. (2020). Pandemic, social unrest, and crime in U.S. cities. Council on Criminal Justice. https://build.neoninspire.com/counciloncj/wp-content/uploads/sites/96/2021/07/Crime-in-US-Cities-October-Update.pdf
31.
SampsonR. (2012). Great American City: Chicago and the enduring neighborhood effect. University of Chicago Press.
32.
SeepersadR., & BissessarA. M. (2013). Gangs in the Caribbean. Newcastle Upon Tyne: Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
33.
ShayeghS., & MalpedeM. (2020). Staying Home Saves Lives, Really!European Institute on Economics and the Environment. 10.2139/ssrn.3567394
34.
SilverH. (1994). Social exclusion and social solidarity: Three paradigms. International Labor Review, 133, 531–578.
35.
UchidaC., SwattM., SolomonS., & VaranoS. (2014). Data-driven crime prevention: New tools for community involvement and crime control. Department of Justice. https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/245408.pdf
36.
United Nations Development Program (UNDP). (2016). Human development report 2016: Human development for everyone. http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2016_human_development_report.pdf
37.
United Nations Development Program (UNDP). (2021). How COVID-19 fosters support and solidarity. https://www.undp.org/blogs/how-covid-19-fosters-support-and-solidarity
38.
VélezM. (2014). Informal social control. In BruinsmaG. & WeisburdD. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice (pages of chapter should be inserted here). Springer. 10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_429
39.
WarnerB. (2007). Directly intervene or call the authorities? A study of forms of neighborhood social control within a social disorganization framework. Criminology, 45, 99–129.
40.
WilkinsonR. D., & PickettK. (2009). The spirit level: Why more equal societies almost always do better. Allen Lane/Penguin Group UK; Bloomsbury Publishing.
41.
World Health Organization. (2020). Addressing violence against children, women and older people during the COVID-19 pandemic: Key actions. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Violence_actions-2020.1
