Navigating Indeterminacy in Wildfire Risk Map Production in the United States

Abstract

Wildfire risk maps have emerged as a prevalent yet contested scientific object in the United States and internationally. These maps, often a patchwork of bright reds and oranges, depict relative risk scores for different locations. Dozens of these maps from private companies and public agencies have proliferated in recent years, yet members of the public and scientists alike have posed questions about map accuracy: can the maps reliably depict the risk of such infrequent, high-consequence events? In this article, I examine these maps as a contribution to the Science and Technology Studies scholarship on the production of risk assessments. Though they appear orderly and neat, wildfire risk maps are the result of complicated, layered scientific decisions. Drawing on interviews with wildfire risk map producers, I analyze how these maps are socially constructed and materialize future risk. Almost universally, these map producers share a lack of confidence in their approaches to modeling wildfire risk because they view wildfire as unpredictable and risk modeling as faulty. How then do these actors determine what constitutes success or a lack thereof? I find that many, in their attempts to navigate indeterminacy, turn instead to personal knowledge of wildfire risk in the places they live.