Migration in an Interregional Macroeconometric Model of the United States: Will Net Outmigration from the Northeast Continue?

Abstract

This paper reports on the specification, estimation and simulation of an interregional net migration model of the United States. The model makes use of time series data including, as explanatory variables, wage rates, unemployment rates, and population density. Simulation experiments are undertaken by joining the migration model with a multiregional macroeconometric model to examine the effect of migration patterns of changes in national economic growth. In particular, the net outmigration trends in the Northeast are examined under alternate scenarios including faster national economic growth and a different energy pricing policy.