The purpose of this article is to study the evolution of GDP disparities among 138 European regions over the period from 1980 to 1995. Regional per capitaGDPcross-sectional distribution is characterized by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions, and the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are then introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning and spatial Markov chains. The results of the analysis indicate the persistence of regional disparities, a progressive bias toward a poverty trap, and the importance of geography in the convergence process.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Anderson T. W., and L. A. Goodman. 1957. Statistical inference about Markov chains . Annals of Mathematical Statistics28: 89-110 .
2.
Anselin, L. 1999. SpaceStat, a software package for the analysis of spatial data. Version 1.90. Ann Arbor, MI: BioMedware .
3.
Anselin, L. 2001. Spatial econometrics. In Companion to econometrics, edited by B. Baltagi. Oxford: Basil Blackwell .
4.
Armstrong, H. W. 1995. Convergence among the regions of the European Union . Papers in Regional Science74: 143-152 .
5.
Armstrong, H. W., and R. Vickerman. 1995. Convergence and divergence among European regions. London: Pion .
6.
Barro R., and X. Sala-i-Martin. 1991. Convergence across states and regions . Brookings Papers in Economic Activity1: 107-122 .
7.
Barro R., and X. Sala-i-Martin. 1995. Economic growth. London: McGraw-Hill .
8.
Bartholomew, D. J. 1982. Stochastic models for social processes. 3d ed. Chichester, UK: John Wiley .
9.
Bianchi M. 1997. Testing for convergence: Evidence from nonparametric multimodality tests . Journal of Applied Econometrics12: 393-409 .
10.
Cheshire P. C., and S. Carbonaro. 1995. Convergence-divergence in regional growth rates: An empty black box? In Convergence and divergence among European regions, edited by H. W. Armstrong and R. W. Vickerman. London: Pion .
11.
Cheshire, P., and S. Magrini. 2000. Endogenous processes in European regional growth, convergence and policy . Growth and Change31: 455-479 .
12.
Cliff, A. D., and J. K. Ord. 1981. Spatial processes: Models and applications. London: Pion .
13.
Dardanoni, V. 1993. Measuring social mobility . Journal of Economic Theory61: 372-394 .
14.
Desdoigts, A. 1999. Patterns of economic development and the formation of clubs . Journal of Economic Growth4: 305-330 .
15.
De Long, B. J. 1988. Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: Comment . American Economic Review78: 1138-1154 .
16.
De Long, B. J., and L. H. Summers. 1991. Equipment investment and economic growth . Quarterly Journal of Economics106: 445-502 .
17.
Esteban, J. M., and D. Ray. 1994. The measurement of polarization . Econometrica62: 819-852 .
18.
European Commission. 1999. The European regions: Sixth periodic report on the socio-economic situation in the regions of the European Union. Luxembourg: Official Publication Office .
19.
Fingleton, B. 1983a. Independence, stationarity, categorical spatial data and the chi-squared test . Environment and PlanningA15: 483-499 .
20.
Fingleton, B. 1983b. Log-linear models with dependent spatial data . Environment and PlanningA15: 801-814 .
21.
Fingleton, B. 1986. Analyzing cross-classified data with inherent spatial dependence . Geographical Analysis18: 48-61 .
22.
Fingleton, B. 1997. Specification and testing of Markov chain models: An application to convergence in the European Union . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics59: 385-403 .
23.
Fingleton, B. 1999. Estimates of time to economic convergence: An analysis of regions of the European Union . International Regional Science Review22: 5-34 .
24.
Friedman, M. 1992. Do old fallacies ever die? Journal of Economic Literature30: 2129-2132 .
25.
Geweke, J., R. C. Marshall, and G. A. Zarkin. 1986. Mobility indices in continuous time Markov chains . Econometrica54: 1407-1423 .
26.
Kemeny, J., and L. Snell. 1976. Finite Markov chains. New York: Springer-Verlag .
27.
Kullback, S., M. Kupperman, and H. H. Ku. 1962. Tests for contingency tables and Markov chains . Technometrics4: 573-608 .
28.
Le Gallo, J., and C. Ertur. 2003. Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Europe, 1980-1995. Papers in Regional Science.
29.
Le Gallo J., C. Ertur, and C. Baumont. 2003. Aspatial econometric analysis of convergence across European regions, 1980-1995. In European regional growth, edited by B. Fingleton. NewYork: Springer-Verlag .
30.
López-Bazo, E., E. Vayá, A. J. Mora, and J. Suriñach. 1999. Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the European Union . Annals of Regional Science33: 343-370 .
31.
Maasoumi, E. 1998. On mobility. In Handbook of applied economic statistics, edited by A. Ullah and D. Giles. New York: Marcel Dekker .
32.
Magrini, S. 1999. The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union . Regional Science and Urban Economics29: 257-281 .
33.
Mankiw, N. G. 1995. The growth of nations . Brookings Papers on Economic Activity1: 275-326 .
34.
Moreno, R., and B. Trehan. 1997. Location and the growth of nations . Journal of Economic Growth2: 399-418 .
35.
Neven, D., and C. Gouyette. 1995. Regional convergence in the European Community . Journal of Common Market Studies33: 47-65 .
36.
Paap, R., and H. Van Dijk. 1998. Distribution and mobility of the wealth of nations . European Economic Review42: 1269-1293 .
37.
Quah, D. 1993a. Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth . European Economic Review37: 426-434 .
38.
Quah, D. 1993b. Galton’s fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis . Scandinavian Journal of Economics95: 427-443 .
39.
Quah, D. 1996a. Convergence empirics across economies with (some) capital mobility . Journal of Economic Growth1: 95-124 .
40.
Quah, D. 1996b. Empirics for economic growth and convergence . European Economic Review40: 1353-1375 .
41.
Quah, D. 1996c. Regional convergence clusters across Europe . European Economic Review40: 951-958 .
42.
Rey, S. 2001. Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence . Geographical Analysis33: 195-214 .
43.
Rey, S., and B. Montouri. 1999. US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspective . Regional Studies33: 143-156 .
44.
Temple J. 1999. The new growth evidence . Journal of Economic Literature37: 112-156 .
45.
Sala-i-Martin, X. 1996. Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence . European Economic Review40: 1325-1352 .
46.
Shorrocks, A. 1978. The measurement of mobility . Econometrica46: 1013-1024
47.
Silverman, B. 1986. Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. London: Chapman and Hall .
48.
Wolfson, M. C. 1994. When inequalities diverge . American Economic Review84: 353-338 .
