Predictive Factors of Mortality After PEG Insertion

Abstract

Background: Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is considered the preferred route for long-term enteral feeding. The aim of this study was to determine predictors of an increased mortality risk after PEG insertion. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted during a 13-year period in the gastroenterology department of Erlangen University Hospital. The authors completed a questionnaire with details of demographic data, diagnosis, indication for PEG, type of tube, and cause of death. Patients were contacted regularly at scheduled appointments. Results: In total, 787 patients (574 male [72.9%]) underwent PEG placement by the pull technique. The main underlying disease was malignant (75.6%). By the end of the study period, 614 patients had died. The average survival time was 720 days. The 30-, 60-, 90-day and 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality rates amounted to 6.5%, 9.8%, 13%, 32.1%, 59.3%, and 69.8%, respectively. Predictive factors of increased 30-day mortality were higher age, lower body mass index (BMI), and the presence of diabetes mellitus. The presence of all 3 variables served as an indicator to detect high-risk patients, with a sensitivity of 0.80 and a specificity of 0.64. Conclusion: Mortality predictors for patients after PEG insertion are higher age, lower BMI, and the presence of diabetes mellitus. To avoid unnecessary and dangerous examinations in high-risk patients, the above-mentioned predictive factors of mortality should be checked before PEG placement.