Inventory Policy Choice and Cost of Debt: A Private Debtholders’ Perspective

Abstract

Prior research suggests that last-in-first-out (LIFO) inventory policy produces higher accruals quality than first-in-first-out (FIFO), leading to lower information risk for LIFO firms. Equity investors, in turn, price lower information risk by giving a premium to LIFO firms. Prior research also suggests that LIFO inventory policy, by understating aggregate earnings and net assets, creates hidden reserves that can be released to produce higher future earnings. Prior research, however, is silent on how debtholders price inventory policy choice. Focusing on private debtholders, we explore three research questions: (a) Do private debtholders price LIFO differently from FIFO? (b) If so, how does downside risk affect the pricing of LIFO? and (c) What is the underlying reason for the pricing effect, accounting quality, or hidden reserves? First, we find that LIFO is associated with a lower loan spread than FIFO. Not surprisingly, the pricing effect of LIFO is larger in high-inflation years than in other years. Second, we find that the pricing effect of LIFO is much larger for unrated firms than for rated firms. Third, we find that the negative association between LIFO and loan spread is driven primarily by hidden LIFO reserves rather than accounting quality. Overall, our evidence shows that inventory policy choice affects private debtholders’ pricing decisions, and this effect is primarily due to future earnings implications of hidden LIFO reserves.