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Abstract

The present study assessed the effects of two variables on people's estimates of consensus from sequential events: Normative expectancies and presentation order. In two experiments, subjects "observed" a 50% base rate unfold in a sample of SO actors, and then estimated what that consensus was. In experiment 1, subjects' estimates were distorted in the direction of their a priori normative beliefs, as they overestimated an expected base rate and underestimated an unexpected base rate. In experiment 2, subjects' responses were biased by the order in which the consensus evolved, revealing a strong primacy effect. These results were discussed in the context of the consensus literature and the "perseverance of beliefs" phenomenon.

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Wells, G. L. , & Harvey, J. H.

Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions?

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1977, 35, 279-293.

Distortions in Estimating Consensus from Sequential Events

Abstract

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