The authors conducted a panel study with two points of measurement throughout a 12-month interval in the context of the German gay movement to test the predictive power of collective identification in subsequent actual social movement participation. Regression analyses including cross-lagged panel analyses clearly confirmed the hypothesized unique predictive value of identification with a formal social movement organization above and beyond the role the collective, normative, and reward motives traditionally considered in social movement research. Of the three motives, the normative motive was particularly predictive. Moreover, data from an additional telephone follow-up (3 years after the initial measurement) suggests that when the conflict with political opponents becomes particularly fierce, identification with the broader recruitment category, which was previously ineffective as a unique predictor, can politicize to such an extent that it also becomes a strong predictor of participation.
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