The worldwide depletion mid-point for conventional oil is expected to be reached in the next 15 years. Around that time the inevitable decline in production will commence. As that point is approached and thereafter, the reserve/production (RIP) ratio (RIP) as an indicator of the availability of conventional oil will becomes more and more misleading: oil will be available much longer, but in decreasing quantities. It is hard to imagine that the anticipated continued rise in demand for crude can be met by additional production from non-conventional deposits. Therefore, trouble lies ahead. The deficit in production capacity will, most likely lead to a considerable rise in the price of oil early next century.
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