Abstract
Gas is New Zealand's major thermal fuel for electricity generation. This paper describes what influences the volumes of gas burnt by ECNZ, and forecasts future gas demands for electricity generation. It also reviews the uncertainties associated with these forecasts and likely competition in building new electricity generating stations and outlines the strategy now being formulated to accommodate them. Because ECNZ's generation system is hydro-based, relatively small rapid changes in hydrological conditions can significantly affect the amount of gas used. This situation will change over time with major increases in thermal generation likely to be needed over the next 20 years. However, there are considerable uncertainties on gas supply and electricity demand levels in the long run, which will complicate investment and fuel decisions.
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