A Probabilistic Interpretation of US Hydrocarbon Supply Shortfall,1990-2000

Abstract

Ten results of assessments of hydrocarbon supply shortfall over the next decade are considered using a cumulative probabilistic framework.

Within resolution of the results, it is shown that, at a 90% confidence level, it is most likely (2/3 chance) that the shortfall supply will be less than about 2.2 million barrels per day by the year 2000, it is unlikely (90% chance) that the shortfall supply will exceed about 3.7 million barrels per day, but it is equally unlikely (90% chance) that the shortfall supply will be less than about 1 million barrels per day.

This probabilistic method for addressing model uncertainties then permits corporate and government decisions to be buttressed by a firmer footing than might have been thought to be the case based solely on the extreme ranges of the 10 individual results.