Carbon Dioxide Emissions Abatement: Implications for Canadian Energy Industries

Abstract

Growing public and scientific concern over the prospects of climate change – the greenhouse effect - have led to calls to reduce CO₂ emissions by approximately 20 percent from 1988 levels by the year 2005. Studies of ways to achieve such reductions in Canada were undertaken by The DPA Group and ROBBERT Associates. This paper examines the implications of the abatement strategies presented in the DPA and ROBBERT reports for Canadian energy industries.

To achieve reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of 20 percent from current levels by 2005, the primary energy demand is kept slightly below the current level. Overall, the impacts of measures to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 20 percent from 1988 levels in 2005 on Canada's energy supply industries are not as serious as might be apprehended.

Domestic demand for coal is likely to suffer most. Coal production would depend even more heavily on export markets. In the case of oil and natural gas the effect is primarily to tie the development of major projects to export markets. Construction of fossil-fired generation would be curtailed but non-fossil construction would be unaffected. Exports of coal, natural gas, electricity and, possibly oil, could rise.

The DPA and ROBBERT scenarios are rough analyses of national carbon dioxide emissions abatement strategies. The foregoing assessment, likewise, is a preliminary overview of their impact, nationally, on the Canadian energy industries.