The Greenhouse Effect and Its Connection with the Use of Fossil Fuels: the Concept of CO 2 Emission Intensity

Abstract

Measurement of the CO₂ content of the atmosphere shows a constant increase over the last century connected to the increasing use of fossil fuels.

In the light of the energy outlook of the World Energy Conference, we have tried to assess the evolution of CO₂ emissions due to the use of fossil fuels, which in itself is the consequence of world economic development. We have thus defined the concept of CO₂ emission intensity as the amount of CO₂ involved in a one percent growth in world industrial production.

Our estimate shows that in the middle of the next century CO₂ emissions will reach a volume of several percent of the emissions of the CO₂ flows caused by the leading atmosphere/ocean and atmosphere/ground physicochemical and biological balances. The reduction of these flows would require the replacement of fossil fuels and especially coal by nuclear energy or energy conservation of such an amplitude that it seems inaccessible.

It thus seems indispensable to refine models capable of defining, with sufficient accuracy, the CO₂ content of the atmosphere and to compare the basis of theories concerning the possible impact of this content on the temperature of the Earth.