Abstract
While Canada is likely to remain a net energy supplier in total over the next twenty years, the country will experience imbalances regionally and for particular types of energy that raise concerns about the security of Canadian energy supply.
The options available to deal with these imbalances can be looked at from three perspectives: (i) economic criteria, including options for new sources of conventional oil and gas, synthetic oil supplies, substitution for oil, renewable energy, imports and new technologies; (ii) commercial criteria, encompassing various types of commercial risk (reserves estimates, scheduling, technology, market, fiscal, financial, and so on); and (iii) political criteria, including regional economic development objectives, energy development policies, environmental regulations, and security of energy supply.
The pursuit of national economic priorities suggests that the least-cost alternatives be pursued first. Economic priorities may require an appropriate sharing of risks, if private risks associated with desired energy development are unacceptable to investors. Government objectives go well beyond concern of economic efficiency into areas of regional economic growth, diversification of supply sources and protection of the environment. An energy strategy will ultimately emerge from the balancing of all these considerations.
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