Abstract
This note presents the results of an exercise carried out to investigate the validity of a method of predicting seasonal energy consumption in occupied dwellings. The calculation method and the ranges of values of parameters suggested in the original presentation were used to predict the fuel consumptions in a total of 42 dwellings, ranging from small flats to large detached houses. The information required to select, from the ranges available, values for the parameters used in the energy calculation equations was obtained from only a simple questionnaire and the external dimensions of each dwelling. The results obtained from studying this group of dwellings indicated that on average, the predicted fuel consumption was 14 per cent higher than the actual consumption. A discrepancy of this magnitude is considered to be consistent with the uncertainties associated with the various parameters used and the simplicity of the method. The most likely reasons for the over-estimates are discussed and an indication given of the research required to permit revision of the appropriate parameters. It is concluded that the accuracy of the method to predict actual fuel consumptions would be improved if in particular realised values of mean internal temperature and precise records of actual fuel consumption were available.
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