Predictions of the yearly pattern of boiler heat load for the dwellings of an estate served by a group heating scheme are notoriously difficult to fit to metered values. This is because, in conventional theoretical expressions to represent the various heat loss terms, no account is taken of the uncertainties in the values of the various critical factors. A method of allowing for these uncertainties is outlined which enables theoretical predictions to be assigned limits within which measured values of heat load may be expected to lie. Predictions of boiler heat load using a computer model based on these principles are compared with metered results and shown to be realistic.
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References
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